Another article via Marc Morano:
“Need more proof that the Big Green Scare Machine is spoon-feeding you
cherry-picked non-science” to further their global warming alarmist
agenda? “Try this,” Marc Sheppard writes at americanthinker.com.
“While news of Arctic ice shrinking to its lowest level on record is
being screamed everywhere … the emergence of colder weather and ice
levels at their highest in almost 30 years on the other side of the
globe has been all but ignored,” Mr. Sheppard said.
“In coming months, you’re sure to hear a lot about how global warming
has created that which has eluded explorers from John Cabot in 1497 to
Henry Hudson in 1609: the fabled Arctic Ocean shipping lane known as
the Northwest Passage.
“And, while it’s true that satellite photos have found an ice-free
corridor along Canada, Alaska and Greenland and Northern Hemisphere
ice at its lowest level since such images were taken in 1978, it’s
also true that Antarctic ice levels (Southern Hemisphere) are at
record highs for that same period.
“That’s right, according to the University of Illinois Polar Research
Group Web site The Cryosphere Today: ‘The Southern Hemisphere sea ice
area has broken the previous maximum of 16.03 million sq. km and is
currently at 16.26 million sq. km. This represents an increase of
about 1.4 percent above the previous SH ice area record high.’
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD is a critical thinker with expertise in the scientific method.
Well golly gee – the denialist fraternity are slow. AGW have been discussing since the 15th. So much for sweeping under the carpet.
Sea ice is “supposed” to be declining in the SH according to the GCMs, but not by much, so this isn’t desperately anomalous. But it is a bit.
http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/2007/09/antarctic_sea_ice.php
Even some betting on sea ice occurring.
Interesting comment from William to get you all going:
“Sea ice is “supposed” to be declining in the SH according to the GCMs, but not by much, so this isn’t desperately anomalous. But it is a bit.”
Do we have something more definitive on what AGW predicts?
This was covered by Realclimate three years ago. Get with the program, Marc.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/antarctic-cooling-global-warming/
It is interesting to note, that not only has there been a max sea ice extent, but the stratospheric temperature over the Antarctic has also hit the lowest ever this year…
http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/
The ozone hole, after some 20 years following the “consensus” that CFCs were causing the “hole” and the Montreal Protocol, shows little signs of returning to “normal” (whatever that may be…). It is now @ 25m sq km – just under the 26m record.
These trends are bearing out the then “skeptic deniers” arguments that CFCs are not to blame (because it was in the southern hemisphere and not where the CFC were produced and the fact that CFC were “heavy” molecules) – but I digress…
To balance the post out, this was posted by David Jones from the BoM in another forum – which is on topic and I found interesting…
“It’s believed the main reason why the Antarctic has not warmed in the last 20 years is a dramatic strengthening of the polar westerlies. This is in response to increased baroclinicity driven by subtropical/tropical warming (AGW) and upper troposphere/stratosphere cooling over Antarctica (due to ozone depletion). The increased westerlies (called the “southern annular mode in scientific circles”) has slowed the exchange of warm air onto the Antarctic, set about strong northward drift of sea ice (due to Ekman drift) and also led to an anomalous vertical motion over the pole which has had the effect of cooling the air through adiabiatic cooling.”
Does anybody remember this?
http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/001124.html
cheers
Arnost
Arnost: Seems this old globe revved up responds quite a bit like a Hilich tube vortex, hot one end and cold at the other. Interesting to see which latitude forms the isolating zone.
Nice try. Anarctica is not follwing teh “predicted” models for temp or precipitation. See below.
14) Another problem for predictions of catastrophic sea level rise due to polar ice melt is Antarctica is not cooperating with the man-made catastrophic global warming models. “A new report on climate over the world’s southernmost continent shows that temperatures during the late 20th century did not climb as had been predicted by many global climate models,” reads the February 15, 2007 press release announcing the findings of David Bromwich, professor of professor of atmospheric sciences in the Department of Geography, and researcher with the Byrd Polar Research Center at Ohio State University. (See: Antarctic temperatures disagree with climate model predictions LINK)
“It’s hard to see a global warming signal from the mainland of Antarctica right now,” Bromwich explained. The release explains that Bromwich’s research team found “no increase in precipitation over Antarctica in the last 50 years. Most models predict that both precipitation and temperature will increase over Antarctica with a warming of the planet.”
See here for more details; http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=175B568A-802A-23AD-4C69-9BDD978FB3CD
Please read the above link. It is info on Greenland and computer model precidtions of sea level rise that you won’t find on Real Climate.
Thanks
Yep
Arnost we have discussed here before that it will be decades before you’d expect to see any ozone hole improvement.
David Jones has described quite eloquently what I’ve posted before (below). You’re seeing an interaction between tropospheric greenhouse warming and stratospheric ozone depletion.
And moving the latitude of the high pressure belts and rainfall with it.
Funnily enough for Morano maybe exactly what you’d expect from AGW.
Science 3 May 2002:
Vol. 296. no. 5569, pp. 895 – 899
DOI: 10.1126/science.1069270
Interpretation of Recent Southern Hemisphere Climate Change
David W. J. Thompson,1* Susan Solomon2
Climate variability in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere (SH) is dominated by the SH annular mode, a large-scale pattern of variability characterized by fluctuations in the strength of the circumpolar vortex. We present evidence that recent trends in the SH tropospheric circulation can be interpreted as a bias toward the high-index polarity of this pattern, with stronger westerly flow encircling the polar cap. It is argued that the largest and most significant tropospheric trends can be traced to recent trends in the lower stratospheric polar vortex, which are due largely to photochemical ozone losses. During the summer-fall season, the trend toward stronger circumpolar flow has contributed substantially to the observed warming over the Antarctic Peninsula and Patagonia and to the cooling over eastern Antarctica and the Antarctic plateau.
1 Department of Atmospheric Science, Foothills Campus, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA.
2 Aeronomy Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 325 South Broadway, Boulder, CO 80305, USA
Marc should get himself updated with the latest in SAM research. Again might be your best post yet mate 🙂
http://www.amos.org.au/conf2007/AMOS07_ABSTRACTS.pdf
The point is that melting Arctic ice is news, the Antarctic gaining ice isn’t.
For the record, a mere 50mm increase in precipitation over Antarctica will reduce total sea volume by 1000km3 each year and negate current Greenland ice melt by a factor of six.
Sea level will drop by 27mm per decade and the rise in temperature will still leave mean temps in the sub -20C range which, last time I checked, will not melt any ice. And even if there were some minor surface melting in mid-summer, any volumes more than 1000km from the coast would have to flow at more than 1.5km/hour for four weeks to actually make it to the coast. A very big ask on such a flat surface.
The models may well predict melting ice but the physical geography and the narrow window before any water re-freezes in autumn renders the models to pure bunkum.
Well Stoat is discussing it even before you guys so?? And the establishment science reported it clearly and forthwith. Come on – just more and more framing by alarmist denialists.
Stoat – Wiki/RC/Green Party – still no objective sources then?
Paul: Close your eyes for a mo and imagine what you can’t see. There is clear evidence from recent geo times in my part of the world for a higher S/L. Where did that fresh water come from?
As more climate work is done it seems that all it took was a BIG melt in the NH. After very subtle change in climate drivers SL receded. The current balance was probably once a function of forestry, reefs etc at the margins.
If polar bears can’t live in Greenland, penguins can’t live in Antarctica. Sure enough we do a lot of running inbetween.
Paul – what desperate irrelevant rot. Are newspapers objective. The simple point is that it was being discussed quite early – before your little mate above on a well known blog. So much for the thrust of cherry picking as a theme. And the establishment science source that broadcast the news from it’s own research isn’t credible? Come on.
It’s all just more and more framing. More denialist alarmist tactics. Boring.
I think you’ll find the SAM stuff a tad more than wicked Wiki-ness.
It’s even more hilarious that what’s happening makes good but complicated sense. Sucked in Morano.
Once more for the slow. If the models are predicting an increase in precipitation at the poles then they are also predicting an increase in cloud cover which will substitute for any changes in ice albedo.
Polar precipitation leads to a build up of ice for as long as mean temperatures remain below zero C and the melt water flow rates remain too slow to transport water back to the ocean. Until then it is a one-way system that extracts water from oceans.
“Once more for the slow. If the models are predicting an increase in precipitation at the poles then they are also predicting an increase in cloud cover which will substitute for any changes in ice albedo.”
Yes, by a strange coincidence, they will balance out perfectly. Amazing.
Yes, and its damn cold and wet (not hot and dry) here in south-western Australia. You can smell the penguin poo on the breeze. They’re getting closer.
P.S. Sorry SJT, I’m being frivolous again. I learnt that trick in stressful situations in the Army in the 1950s. I will try to be more serious about the big AGW (may Allah be praised). In fact, those who blaspheme should be shot, or at least have burning splinters under their nails.
In the torture stakes it is hard to beat the treatment dished out to a rather effeminate British royal with the misfortune to be in the short line to the throne at the wrong time in history. The tip was cut off a cows horn and said object inserted up his orifice so red hot irons could be inserted without leaving any visible external evidence after his death. So be careful, Luke, we have your measure.
True oh Motty,
One of the Mortimers was closely involved in that Medieval Colonic Warming episode at Berkely Castle. Few would deny that they were torture experts, with long private practice in the dungeons of their Wigmore Castle, and a couple of public exhibitions in Shrewsbury market place. Some credit them with devising a neat way of ripping denialist Welshmen apart by means of four horses going in different directions. I am a Mortimer descendant. Hear and tremble, ye denialists, and those who deny the denialists … such as Luke.
I think the issue here is the misrepresentation of current rising sea levels being due to AGW. For example, the government of Tuvalu has stridently claimed that they are being flooded by rising sea levels caused by AGW. Therefore the developed countries owe them a favour, and lots of monetary compensation, to attone for their environmental sins. The environmental lobby has supported these assertions and claims. Similar claims are being made by the peoples of the Torres Strait islands.
The importance of the data for Antarctica revealing net positive mass balance is that it refutes these claims. The last estimates for mass balance for Antarctica showed a positive gain of 2288 gigatonnes per year. This equates to a lowering of sea level by about 0.5 mm per year. The often shown melting of the Antarctic peninsula is deliberately misleading, and is widely used by the environmental and AGW lobby to create fear. (the antarctic peninsula has been melting for about the past 6,000 years).
Similarly, if I remember correctly, the net mass balance for Greenland is zero, or slightly positive, contrary to the claims made by the environmental and AGW lobbies.
It is interesting to note that the SEAFRAME tide gauge stationed by the Australian government on Tuvalu actually shows a fall in sea level of about 1.2 cm per year. However, this is carefully ignored by the AGW protagonists.
PP
Pete
the trend is clear, the level is rising. SEAFRAME is looking at more than just one island.
If I remember correctly, Tuvulu sits in a 200m depression on the Earth’s surface – so it’s a minor miracle that it is still there.
Cryosphere has changed the SH sea ice extent records. It is no longer the max ever.
See “UPDATE: Wednesday, September 12, 2007 – *correction* – close to record SH sea ice maximum and NH sea ice minimum” – here:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/
“Correction: we had previously reported that there had been a new SH historic maximum ice area. Unfortunately, we found a small glitch in our software. The timeseries have now been corrected…”
“The Southern Hemisphere sea ice area … is currently at 15.91 million sq. km”
Looking at the latest sea-ice anomaly graph – this year is now not even CLOSE to max… Obviously more corrections have been found:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.anom.south.jpg
All’s well in the world again…
Private Pete – you’re a bit of a worry – we’ve been over this before – you should try searching the archives here !!
The National Tidal Facility Reports at http://www.bom.gov.au/oceanography/projects/spslcmp/reports.shtml are rather interesting.. .. These show a mean rate of rise of Tuvalu sea level of +5.8mm /year – These data are corrected for tectonic movements using GPS. Tuvalu is “very” low – doesn’t take much surge to cause flooding.
Here’s the result of Feb 2006 King Tides
http://www.tuvalu.tv/tiki/tiki-browse_gallery.php?galleryId=1%20.
Luke didn’t mention that the satellite GPS stuff is still very preliminary stuff because the only way to be certain the sat-scans are correctly measuring such small changes from such high altitudes is to run them over many decades. The jury is still very much out.
Posted on other threads, a new SH ice area maximum was reached and reported on The Cryosphere Today on 26-SEP. So humanitarians can now can agree with Mr. Arnost’s (at the time, bizarre) comment that, “all is well with the world!” *Bizarre, in that he thought it “well” that the ice caps are melting due to AGW — kind of like cheering for AGW disaster, eh?
See the updated (SW corrected) graphic in http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.area.south.jpg
The new record was approximately 16.17M sq-mi adjusted (it would have been ~16.53M pre-adjustment).