Open Thread

“Whenever a theory appears to you as the only possible one, take this as a sign that you have neither understood the theory nor the problem which it was intended to solve.”
Karl Popper, 1902-1994.

 Karl Popper

65 Responses to Open Thread

  1. Neville September 14, 2014 at 1:43 pm #

    Egg thanks for that Gergis/ Karoly study, but the SH hockey study was released in 2012. Here the ABC interviewed Gergis in May 2012, but never followed up about its retraction after Jean S and McIntyre completed their demolition.

  2. egg September 14, 2014 at 6:30 pm #

    Thanks Neville.

    Bob Carter gets a say….

  3. handjive of September 14, 2014 at 6:40 pm #

    Researchers create a Maxwell’s demon with a single electron

    “Maxwell’s demon is one of the most famous thought experiments in physics.”

  4. peter azlac September 14, 2014 at 7:20 pm #

    Over at ClimateEtc, Judith Curry cites a paper that covers Popper´s views on ad hoc hypotheses – such as the current 52 excuses being used to explain the failure of the CAGW meme.:

    Dr. Kendrick piece on adding ad hoc hypotheses to explain failures of favorite hypotheses.

  5. Siliggy September 15, 2014 at 4:52 am #

    The ten year Arctic pause( a bit confused by a low sine wave sample rate). 0.42 or 0,58 of a year is about as clear as it gets.
    The “0.42” and “0.58” make sense if you click on the raw data.

  6. Siliggy September 15, 2014 at 5:57 am #

    To show how confused a trend line on a sine wave can get.

  7. egg September 15, 2014 at 6:42 am #

    ‘ANTARCTIC sea ice has expan­ded to its greatest coverage since records began in 1978, continuing to confound climate scien­tists and proving even more hazardous than usual for shipping in the Southern Ocean.’

    Rick Morton / Oz

  8. egg September 15, 2014 at 7:19 am #

    Warmist Confronts Reality

    ‘Odenwald also informs readers that the high level of solar activity from 1950 to 2009 indeed had been an outlier and that it is clear that “the global temperature, which has increased for more than 100 years, rose most strongly from 1975 to 2000.

    ‘According to the IPCC the 30-year period from 1983 to 2012 in the northern hemisphere was the warmest in 1400 years. Roughly calculated it coincides with the most recent Grand Maximum.”

    ‘Odenwald also writes that some climatologists believe “the real driver of climate change is our sun. Some are even warning of a new little ice age.”

    – See more at:

  9. Larry Fields September 15, 2014 at 8:11 am #

    John Reid September 14, 2014 at 4:20 pm #
    “Larry Fields: nice idea to use Benford’s Law but I doubt if it would prove anything. Benford’s law works when people are making numbers up as when cooking the books in an accounting sense. I suspect BOM has some sort of algorithm for making these readjustments and this would not be detected by Benford’s Law.”
    (This was from the recent Tangled Web thread.)

    Benford’s Law is best applied to large sets of essentially continuous measurement data, which can span several orders of magnitude. That’s why it’s useful in the detection of ‘cooked’ numbers in financial documents.

    However there’s a fly in the ointment. Example: Applying Benford’s Law DIRECTLY to daytime high Fahrenheit temperatures in Honolulu would be problematic. The most common first digits would probably be 7’s, 8’s and 9’s!

    What we really need is a reasonable mathematical function, a 1-1 mapping of the raw Honolulu data set onto a second set that contains all possible first digits. Note: This is NOT the same thing as temperature adjustments, since ALL measurement data is treated in the same way. No TOBs, no ‘homogenization’, and no hallucinations.

    The main point: Mantissas of well-behaved measurement-based data are logarithmically distributed.

    Some researchers have also formulated a variation of Benford’s Law that looks at SECOND digits. However that method is less powerful than the first digit approach, and would require larger data sets to come up with anything meaningful. Moreover I don’t know how one would do a significance test on second-digit data.

    By the way, I strongly suspect that the people at BOM are mostly hacks, who have never heard of Benford’s Law. Given sufficiently large data sets that meet the two criteria that I’ve mentioned, BL should detect data diddling in the adjusted numbers, since they’re supposedly measurement-based quantities.

    UNLESS the BOM folks are a lot smarter than they appear to be, in the light of the fiascos at Rutherglen, Bourke, etc.

  10. Neville September 15, 2014 at 8:14 am #

    The Bolter is also asking the obvious question about record Antarctic ice trends. The two satellite temp trends now show no SS troposphere trend for about 21 years. That’s 16 years for UAH and 26 years for RSS according to McKitrick’s latest study.

  11. Neville September 15, 2014 at 8:32 am #

    In a June 2014 post Bob Tisdale included this comment about the difference in UAH and RSS. The last sentence implies that UAH and RSS will have a closer temp reading when UAH’s version 6 is introduced. The sooner the better IMHO.

    A Quick Note about the Difference between RSS and UAH TLT data

    There is a noticeable difference between the RSS and UAH lower troposphere temperature anomaly data. Dr. Roy Spencer discussed this in his July 2011 blog post On the Divergence Between the UAH and RSS Global Temperature Records. In summary, John Christy and Roy Spencer believe the divergence is caused by the use of data from different satellites. UAH has used the NASA Aqua AMSU satellite in recent years, while as Dr. Spencer writes:

    …RSS is still using the old NOAA-15 satellite which has a decaying orbit, to which they are then applying a diurnal cycle drift correction based upon a climate model, which does not quite match reality.

    I updated the graphs in Roy Spencer’s post in On the Differences and Similarities between Global Surface Temperature and Lower Troposphere Temperature Anomaly Datasets.

    While the two lower troposphere temperature datasets are different in recent years, UAH believes their data are correct, and, likewise, RSS believes their TLT data are correct. Does the UAH data have a warming bias in recent years or does the RSS data have cooling bias? Until the two suppliers can account for and agree on the differences, both are available for presentation.

    In a more recent blog post, Roy Spencer has advised that the UAH lower troposphere Version 6 will be released soon and that it will reduce the difference between the UAH and RSS data.

  12. Neville September 15, 2014 at 8:52 am #

    Roy Spencer had this to say about version 6 in June this year. Here’s his quote——-

    “As we finish up our new Version 6 of the UAH dataset, it looks like our anomalies in the 2nd half of the satellite record will be slightly cooler, somewhat more like the RSS dataset….but we are talking small adjustments here…hundredths of a deg. C.”

  13. egg September 15, 2014 at 9:15 am #

    Congrats to Handjive with the Bolter h/t

  14. Siliggy September 15, 2014 at 12:33 pm #

    A bit more on that sine wave.
    There is ( due to current position of the Milankovitch cycles ) a global temperature sine wave.
    Which puts my mistake in good company.
    His ten year cooling trendline should get steeper as the cooler half of the global cycle progresses..

  15. egg September 15, 2014 at 9:20 pm #

    UN Climate Summit Given Cold Shoulder by Leading Intellectuals

    ‘Harper joins President Xi Jinping of China, Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India and Prime Minister Tony Abbott of Australia in choosing to skip the summit.’

    Climate Spectator

  16. hunter September 16, 2014 at 12:02 am #

    That is a great timely quote from Popper. Keep up the good work in pressuring the cliamtocracy in Australia to come clean and be held accountable.
    What similarities do you see between the US and other national records in the West and the Australian debacle?

  17. egg September 16, 2014 at 7:40 am #

    Non existent warming causes sea ice to increase around Antarctica.

  18. egg September 16, 2014 at 7:57 am #

    Carter and Harris in NY Post

  19. jennifer September 16, 2014 at 8:15 am #

    This is funny… Simon Birmingham is going to appoint a panel to oversee homogenisation of the temperature record…

    And Birmingham will ensure the panel includes respected external scientists and statisticians.

    What is nice about the article is that Graham Lloyd begins by identify the temperature record as “the national homogenised temperature record”. Yep. That is not the real one. 🙂

  20. jennifer September 16, 2014 at 8:21 am #


    Similar methods are used in the US and UK. There should be zero tolerance to this revisionist approach.

    The most sensible paper on the subject that I have read has come out of China. They say you only homogenise when there is a statistically significant discontinuity supported by meta data that proves it to be non-climatic in origin.

  21. Neville September 16, 2014 at 10:10 am #

    Tony Abbott is showing real leadership by not attending the latest climate conference BS in New York next week. And great to see it stir up the EU and their ABC so much.
    BTW Jennifer let’s hope the people chosen for that BOM audit are truly independent and not the usual old suspects and hacks.

  22. Neville September 16, 2014 at 3:08 pm #

    More lies and nonsense about Kiribati drowning. Trust their ABC to promote and encourage this sort of stupidity.

  23. Neville September 16, 2014 at 7:38 pm #

    And now the extremists want the Holocene to disappear. This is a very good post from the Hockey Schtick via WUWT with many different graphs over many thousands of years.

  24. Neville September 16, 2014 at 7:51 pm #

    A new study has found that years of low Arctic sea ice are driven by high clouds.

    Here is the abstract————


    This study demonstrates that absorbed solar radiation (ASR) at the top of the atmosphere in early summer (May–July) plays a precursory role in determining the Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) in late summer (August–October). The monthly ASR anomalies are obtained over the Arctic Ocean (65°N–90°N) from the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System during 2000–2013. The ASR changes primarily with cloud variation. We found that the ASR anomaly in early summer is significantly correlated with the SIC anomaly in late summer (correlation coefficient, r  ≈ −0.8 with a lag of 1 to 4 months). The region exhibiting high (low) ASR anomalies and low (high) SIC anomalies varies yearly. The possible reason is that the solar heat input to ice is most effectively affected by the cloud shielding effect under the maximum TOA solar radiation in June and amplified by the ice-albedo feedback. This intimate delayed ASR-SIC relationship is not represented in most of current climate models. Rather, the models tend to over-emphasize internal sea ice processes in summer

  25. egg September 16, 2014 at 8:44 pm #

    Lower Lakes Attract NZ Tourists

  26. egg September 16, 2014 at 9:01 pm #

    Antarctica: The elephant in the room.

    ‘Here’s proof that mainstream media journalism is either sloppy and just too lazy to check the data themselves, or is catatonically stuck in their now 18-year long illusion of global warming.

    ‘Recently a number of leading media outlets trumpeted (loudly) scary claims of “accelerating polar ice melt”. For example last May Germany’s leading online financial daily Handelsblatt cited a NASA study appearing in the Geophysical Research Letters and reported: “Polar ice melting much faster than assumed“, and warned of sea levels rising more than a meter.’

    – See more at:

  27. Neville September 17, 2014 at 8:04 am #

    Bill Shorten’s old union the AWU now wants the aluminium industry exempted from OZ’s RET scheme. So why not also exempt the car, steel, power, etc industries from this brainless RET absurdity?
    It’s not as if any of our industries have plenty of fat and efficiencies to fall back on, when compared to our overseas competitors.

  28. Neville September 17, 2014 at 1:11 pm #

    A new study finds a strong correlation between flooding and solar activity.

  29. Neville September 17, 2014 at 1:19 pm #

    Judith Curry tackles the fools and scientists who repeat stupid nonsense about so called CAGW. She shows intelligence and guts in this National press club address. More strength to her arm.

  30. Neville September 18, 2014 at 8:20 am #

    The Bolter provides the facts and nails down their ABC and some of their extremist supporters. Amazing that this taxpayer funded left wing think tank doesn’t provide a balanced debate on Q&A to debate their so called CAGW.

  31. Neville September 18, 2014 at 9:51 am #

    The number one daily newspaper in Germany has had a gutful of the extremists and their delusional CAGW scare. Just more proof that sceptics are winning and observations are conquering pseudo science.

  32. egg September 18, 2014 at 11:29 am #

    Spring wheat crop damaged by late frosts.

    Carter’s Plan B should be taken seriously, its essential that we begin to move agriculture further north, build new cities and connect them to bullet trains.

  33. Jennifer Marohay September 18, 2014 at 11:39 am #

    Important post by Ken Stewart here…

  34. egg September 18, 2014 at 5:07 pm #

    West Antarctic Geothermal Hub

  35. Debbie September 18, 2014 at 9:24 pm #
    They don’t give up, that’s for sure!
    There is no balance whatsoever in this report!

  36. egg September 19, 2014 at 6:26 am #

    And Q&A the other night was a disgrace, talk about groupthink. There appears no way to break through aunty’s armour and the sad thing about all this is that I’m constantly abused in real life and the blogosphere for suggesting that half of our population has been severely brainwashed.

  37. egg September 19, 2014 at 9:20 am #

    And if solar forcing has credibility we should see a decrease in Indian monsoonal intensity forthwith.

  38. egg September 19, 2014 at 10:33 am #

    ‘With each monsoon season India waits with bated breath for forecasts from the India Meteorological Department and other international forecasting agencies. This year’s forecast suggested a weakened monsoon, and sure enough for five weeks the monsoon has failed to provide the deluge that is expected.’

    The Conversation / July 2014

  39. egg September 19, 2014 at 12:41 pm #

    In my quest to find Sol driven climate change mechanisms.


    ‘Multiple proxy records (tree-ring, coral, ice and documentary) were examined to isolate ENSO signals associated with both phases of the phenomenon for the period A.D. 1525–2002.

    ‘To avoid making large-scale inferences from single proxy analysis, regional signals were aggregated into a network of high-resolution records, revealing large-scale trends in the frequency, magnitude and duration of pre-instrumental ENSO using novel applications of percentile analysis.

    ‘Here we use the newly introduced coupled ocean-atmosphere ENSO index (CEI) as a baseline for the calibration of proxy records. The reconstruction revealed 83 extreme or very strong ENSO episodes since A.D. 1525, expanding considerably on existing ENSO event chronologies.

    ‘Significantly, excerpts of the most comprehensive list of La Nina events complied to date are presented, indicating peak activity during the 16th to mid 17th and 20th centuries.

    ‘Although extreme events are seen throughout the 478 year reconstruction, 43% of the extreme ENSO events noted since A.D. 1525 occur during the 20th century, with an obvious bias towards enhanced El Nino conditions in recent decades.

    ‘Of the total number of extreme event years reconstructed, 30% of all reconstructed ENSO event years occur post-1940 alone suggesting that recent ENSO variability ap- pears anomalous in the context of the past five centuries.’

    Gergis and Fowler / 2006

  40. Neville September 19, 2014 at 4:49 pm #

    Egg here is that Gergis Fowler study, but I can’t understand their conclusions. For example 1998 is listed as a strong la nina while the very strong 1917 la nina isn’t listed at all.

    But here’s NOAA’s reconstruction of the PDO for the last 1000 years, 993 to 1996. Rather a lot more room in that record for very extreme ENSO conditions I’d say.

  41. egg September 19, 2014 at 7:44 pm #

    The PDO appears to have been cool throughout the MWP, very interesting and worth following up.

    With the Gergis/Fowler paper its hard to give a definitive answer, they seemed to have covered all bases, but I take your point. There maybe other examples in need of cherry picking.

  42. egg September 19, 2014 at 8:49 pm #

    CO2 Science / Pau et al

    ‘Most pertinent was the three researchers’ finding that “a shift from dry to wet climate conditions marked the beginning of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) as evidenced by a precipitation reconstruction based on a pollen abundance index.”

    ‘They note, for example, that over the 2500 years of their record “there have been two major climatic events: first the MCA (AD 800-1300), followed by the Little Ice Age (AD 1400-1850).”

    ‘And with respect to this finding, they indicate that “increased rainfall during the MCA in Hawai’i supports the evidence that climate dynamics during the MCA was consistent with decreasing El Nino frequency or a persistent La Nina-like state,” as espoused by Crowley (2000), Bradley et al. (2003), Cobb et al. (2003) and Mann et al. (2005).


    A persistent La Nina state travels nicely with persistent cool PDOs, Australia would have been awash.

  43. egg September 19, 2014 at 9:29 pm #

    “The CO2 story is over. It has been pointing the world in the wrong direction for too long. The serious implications of the developing mini ice age to agriculture and the world economy through the next 25 to 35 years must be addressed.”

    Piers Corbyn

    Indeed, but we need point to the mechanisms involved and explain what it means, the technical cause and effect and human impact. Historically weak or failed Indian monsoons would have played havoc.

    When the sun goes on the blink, a few oscillations switch to a different mode of operation. The North Atlantic Oscillation is directly linked to the behaviour of the sun.

  44. Neville September 20, 2014 at 8:40 am #

    Egg my point was that the climate during the first half of that PDO record would have been very extreme compared to our mild climate over the last 150 years of the instrumental record.

    BTW another new SL study finds that there has been about 1.7mm/ year rise (about 7 inches/century) in SLR since 1900. The Wenzel et al study also finds that SLs have fallen along most of the OZ east coast since the 1950s. So much for the extremist BS promoted by the former Labor and Green coalition govt.

  45. Neville September 20, 2014 at 8:52 am #

    The 2014 Brain et al study also shows a SL rise in nth Carolina of 170mm per century. That’s also about 6.8 inches/ century and zero impact from co2 emissions since 1950. For how much longer can they get away with their CAGW lies.

  46. Neville September 20, 2014 at 10:15 am #

    Ya gotta laugh about the extremists efforts to outdo one another at Wikipedia and other sites. It seems that there are other people just as gung ho and stupid as William Connelly who just love to peddle their delusional nonsense.

  47. Neville September 20, 2014 at 10:56 am #

    This review by German scientists looks at sea levels over the last 180 million years.

    But the most recent observations show that SLR will be very minor by 2100. Probably about 3 to 4 inches over that time.
    Once again like temp recent SLR seems to following ocean oscillations like the PDO. Enso and the PDO seem to account for a lot of the temp changes and SLR since 1900.

  48. egg September 20, 2014 at 11:20 am #

    ‘would have been very extreme compared to our mild climate over the last 150 years of the instrumental record.’


  49. egg September 20, 2014 at 11:41 am #

    I like the work of Eric Worrall, a colourful character from Bundaberg making a name for himself at Watts.

  50. egg September 20, 2014 at 4:02 pm #

    Farmer Gez on the other thread lamented BoMs inability to predict rainfall, if the sun stays in a slump then it will become progressively drier in Queensland and presumably, but not necessarily, the rest of the country.

  51. egg September 20, 2014 at 4:09 pm #

    What we can say for sure is that the LIA came to an abrupt end in North Queensland around 1871.

  52. Another Ian September 20, 2014 at 6:42 pm #



  53. egg September 20, 2014 at 9:28 pm #

    ‘Even though human influences could have serious consequences for the climate, they are physically small in relation to the climate system as a whole. For example, human additions to carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by the middle of the 21st century are expected to directly shift the atmosphere’s natural greenhouse effect by only 1% to 2%. Since the climate system is highly variable on its own, that smallness sets a very high bar for confidently projecting the consequences of human influences.’

    Steven Koonin / WSJ

  54. egg September 21, 2014 at 8:44 am #

    And the proof is in the pudding, CO2 seems to make no impression on temperatures.

  55. egg September 21, 2014 at 12:31 pm #

    To recap what I said earlier, the return of big rains in the 1870s saw the end of the LIA in North Queensland and in 1878 there was a gigantic spike in temperatures world wide.

    Coincidence? I think not.

  56. egg September 21, 2014 at 4:01 pm #

    In fact there was a temperature spike in 1870, then a second one later in the decade.

    So it ties in nicely with more moisture in the air and large floods in Queensland.

    Still don’t know what caused those impulsive temp blips, except that it wasn’t CO2 or the sun.

  57. Neville September 21, 2014 at 6:55 pm #

    This 2013 SL study shows no increase in the rate of SLR from 1807 to 2010. The average rise over the 203 years was about 4 inches per century and they find no acceleration due to AGW.

  58. Neville September 22, 2014 at 8:02 am #

    Here is NOAA’s estimate of SLR at Fort Denison Sydney. They find a rise of just 0.65mm a year or about 2.6 inches per century. This is over a period of about 124 years. Why are the MSM , scientists and political parties lying to Aussies? There is zero evidence of the impact from AGW at all.

  59. Neville September 22, 2014 at 8:27 am #

    Obama’s science fantasist John Holdren seems to be completely wrong about the impact of his CAGW. Everything he says is the exact opposite to reality.

    BTW just heard on their ABC that China’s per capita emissions of co2 are now greater than the EU. Yet India and China emissions of co2 will continue to soar for decades to come. Africa, China and India have at least another billion plus people to lift out of extreme poverty.

  60. Neville September 22, 2014 at 10:16 am #

    New study finds snow accumulation in East Antarctic area is at the highest level for 900 years.

  61. Neville September 22, 2014 at 10:51 am #

    I wonder what SD thinks of that NOAA estimate of Fort Denison SLR of 0.65mm a year? I remember all the BS he had to cop from Luke etc about our soon to be inundated east coast.

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