More Flooding
Posted by jennifer, February 3rd, 2012 - under Information.
Tags: Floods
Large areas of Queensland and New South Wales are flooding again.
In New South Wales:
Flood Warning – Clarence River,
Flood Warning – Bellinger River,
Flood Warning – Hastings River,
Flood Warning – Manning River,
Flood Warning – Orara River,
Flood Warning – MacIntyre River,
Flood Warning – Gwydir River,
Flood Warning – Peel-Namoi Rivers,
Flood Warning – Castlereagh River,
Flood Warning – Culgoa-Bokhara-Narran Rivers,
Flood Warning – Warrego River,
Flood Warning – Paroo River,
Flood Warning – Barwon-Darling Rivers,
Flood Warning – Paterson-Williams Rivers,
Flood Warning – Nambucca River.
In Queensland:
Flood Warning – Burdekin River,
Flood Warning – Fitzroy River,
Flood Warning – Condamine-Balonne Rivers,
Flood Warning – Macintyre/Weir,
Flood Warning – Moonie River,
Flood Warning – Nebine/Wallam/Mungallala,
Flood Warning – Warrego River,
Flood Warning – Paroo River,
Flood Warning – Bulloo River,
Flood Warning – Thomson/Barcoo/Cooper Ck,
Flood Warning – Western Queensland Rivers,
Flood Warning – Gulf Rivers.
Thanks for correcting my terminology Luke.
That isn’t the point either.
BTW, there are megabytes and megabytes and reams and reams of models I just used C02 etc as adjective.
You are shooting the messenger.
There has been a lot of damage to property and also crop losses in these areas that our AGW celebs claimed would never see flooding and dam filling rains like this again. And yes Luke I know they are not the science. Unfortunately for you and the rest of us, they have hijacked the science. I remember Bob claiming loudly on public media last year that we should make the coal mining companies pay because they caused the flooding.
The day we really nail climate projection and understand all the variables will be a happy day for people in my industry.
I don’t believe however that we’re ever going to be able to ‘manage’ the climate by ‘managing’ human behaviour.
Scientists are not prophets and the genuine scientists and researchers are fully aware of that.
They are also fully aware that their models are deficient, despite the incessant claims otherwise from the current political agenda.
Debbie I don’t think you will achieve anything of value trying to talk any sense into Luke.
Because this is a post on floods I just thought it is important to look at the rainfall record again over Australia from 1900 to 2011.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=rranom&area=aus&season=0112&ave_yr=15
It certainly has changed over Oz and has indeed produced more rainfall over the last 112 years.
I’ve set this as an anomaly graph showing above and below average rainfall with the moving average line extended out to 15 years.
Most of the states have increased rainfall except Tassie and SWWA and Vic is lineball. WA overall has much increased rainfall over the last 112 years.
BTW heard an interview on Vic ABC country hour today with a bloke named Wood from the Gratton Institute and I was stunned by the utter nonsense and delusional drivel sprouted by him.
It seems we must “address CC” by reducing our emissions of co2 by 80% by 2050 and could do this by CCapture and storage of our CF power stations and use more Solar and wind power.
The lame ABC interviewer didn’t know enough to ask him how this could reduce total world emissions when our “addressed” emissions would be replaced by China etc in a matter of months and at a much cheaper cost.
He said it would be difficult but we had nothing to fear. But I thought nothing to fear but the waste of countless billions for zero result and a hopelessly inefficient and dangerously unreliable, super expensive electricity supply.
How have we become so barking mad that we can’t even understand simple kindy maths. Also our bi-polar thinking is breathtakingly stupid. On the one hand we are trying to reduce our use of coal in OZ but happily export three times that tonnage overseas every year and we are desperately seeking ever higher tonnages every year as well.
If its used in Sth Korea or Japan or India or China it’s okay and they can freely benifit from the cheap power produced. For them it means more cheap reliable energy and more industry and jobs, but if we use a fraction of the same coal here in OZ that’s BAD with a capital B.
It can’t change the temp or climate by a jot, but we must be punished and lose our industries and jobs overseas. Just barking mad and so easy to understand. So why can’t they ?
The ye olde whole of Oz time series rainfall ruse when there are very important spatial anomalies. Only a denier like Neville ignoring all the science done on the said anomalies would run it. But then Neville doesn’t have any science except for looking up BoM’s web site.
But on the other hand don’t the last two years look anomalous – what was that prediction about wetter wets? Nah – don’t swing at it.
Well Luke I’ve just linked to the BOM website, now tell me where was I wrong? I mean I didn’t change the rainfall record or tamper with it , now where am I wrong?
Now if I was really dim and barking mad I could have suggested there was a definite co2 connection or attribution for the 1940s drought.
Even today everyone’s suddenly gone cold on co2 or AGW being the cause of the last drought when co2 levels are 390ppmv, not the bare skimpy 300ppmv at most in the early 1900′s.
I’ve never claimed to be well educated or a scientist but at least there are some limits to my imagination.
You’ve been told so many times that it’s now tedious.
I agree with your “I’ve never claimed to be well educated or a scientist”
I will have a swing,
I repeat, the day when we really nail climate projection will be a very happy day for my industry.
Maybe Luke could try this tack to keep employee loyalty?
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/02/05/biased-climate-survey-sent-to-all-noaa-employees/
Well let’s look at the spatial rainfall differences across OZ over the last 112 years and boy they were certainly different.
The stand out is the 1922 to 1947 ( roughly) period of low rainfall over nearly all states and northern, southern, sth eastern, etc. Wonder what caused that low rainfall pattern just at that time?
The only state to miss out is Tassie and SWWA. The NT was incredibly dry for the first 75 years of the record, in fact bone dry. Why was this I wonder and why is South Aust a wetter place now as well?
What a pity we haven’t got accurate rainfall records for say the last 300 years, perhaps we would be very surprised by some of the spatial changes.
Of course it would amazing if the inmates actually tried reading and thinking – but that’s unlikely.
http://www.cawcr.gov.au/publications/technicalreports/CTR_026.pdf
Indeed
SEA (continental Australia south of 33.5°S and east of 135.5°S) has recorded the lowest
thirteen-year rainfall period in the entire (1900-2009) historical record (-11.4%). The deficit
is 45% larger than the previous driest thirteen-year period in the record (-7.8% during 1933-
1945). Shorter low rainfall periods were observed in the past at the time of the Australian
Federation and at the time of the WWII. However, the duration of the current drought is
unprecedented.
The current drought is clearly linked to global warming through the strengthening of the
STR. Moreover, the WWII dry decade can be seen as the first dry decade of the 20th century
in SEA that could be considered partially due to global warming through the intensification
of the STR.
And of even more interest – http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.2251/pdf
This suggests that the drivers of long-term trends in southern Australian rainfall do not involve the tropical oceans so much as changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation.
So what stopped the drought sequence? What will happen when drought returns.
They are actually excellent questions Luke,
When we find the answers to those we can rightly claim that the climate puzzle is starting to be solved.
I take issue with the claim that there is a clear link with global warming.
Way too much other stuff happening.You call it wiggle, wobbles and noise.
As Binny commented, there is nothing unusual about a flood following a drought in SE Australia. Neville’s links also show that.
I think that some are confusing the issue with those pesky long term averages. That is different to what most would call normal.
Maybe large scale atmospheric circulation was influencing the catchment areas? Maybe not? Cloud seeding could maybe create some equilibrium? At the very least that has a definite achievable goal. Mind you, it’s not something we need to do at the moment. No permanent bureaucracy needed for that initiative.
I seriously doubt that putting a price on carbon will help the Oz climate, don’t you?
Luke the duration of the earlier droughts in the NT, Southern Australia, South Australia, NSW and MDB rainfall were also unprecedented in severity.
So what caused those droughts 80 to 90 years ago. Don’t forget that South Australia had below average rainfall for a total of 17 years straight, with no relief at all.
As bad as that last drought in SE Australia was the trend overall is still positive. The first 70+ years of the NT record was in drought for most of the time. NSW was much drier for the earlier part of the record as well.
And as you should know by now Southern Australia has been drying out for at least 5,000 years and from a shorter high point 1,000 years ago to the lower rainfall of the present day.
The recent drought is clearly linked to natural variability, drought is followed by flood and has done so in this big brown land over millennia.
Are they saying that SA is somehow immune from ENSO and the IOD?
Bollocks… the klimatariat are clutching at straws.
Bolt shows what hypocrites the warmests really are. Michaels gets peanuts and is lambasted by these idiots, then they step up to the plate and accept $28 million.
What liars and fraudsters these greedy fantasists are shown to be.
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/a_sceptics_crime_is_a_greens_virtue/
“So what caused those droughts 80 to 90 years ago.” Your drivelly analyses are not a study Neville. Your whole excuse is “oh something happened sometime before, and shit happens in lots of places” and if it’s drying out – well why is it now flooding? And why did it flood in the 50s and 70s if it’s drying out? Why is drying out? I know – coz shit happens.
“The recent drought is clearly linked to natural variability, drought is followed by flood and has done so in this big brown land over millennia.” El Gordo’s level of science. Shit happens.
“Are they saying that SA is somehow immune from ENSO and the IOD?” so much for El Gordo’s intelligence test.
You see Debs – if I was a top flight climate scientist I wouldn’t waste my time even talking to these guys – unable to even articulate a single intelligent question and reduced to recycling blog slops from Bolta.
And there’s lots of thoughtful ideas in the material I’ve posted above, but here on blog we’re about at the Australopithecus level of bashing rocks together.
Face it Luke you are a first class fool and a somewhat delusional fool at that. Over the years we’ve given you many examples to show that that latest temps, sea levels, etc are not unprecedented or unusual at all.
Instead of whooping up support for C models you should just look at past records like our rainfall records I’ve linked to above.
Rainfall varies NATURALLY all over OZ to an incredible degree as the record shows, but to pick out a couple of recent spatial spots and claim they are caused by AGW is ridiculous.
But then again why would anyone bother arguing with a person who believes that a 10% increase ( just) in co2 levels would be a factor causing the 1940′s drought?
I see the flood level in the Balonne at St George reached 13.85m this morning and the levy is holding. We hear all the time that the highest flood was in 2010 at 13.4m or thereabouts but the BoM list July 1950 as the record peak but don’t give a measurement.
Does anyone know what that peak was?
Monckton shows how to whip the backside of a delusional fool.
http://joannenova.com.au/2012/02/cooking-the-books-monckton-replies-to-cook/#more-20133
McIntyre shows up the UEA again. Where would we be without people like the two Canadian treasures McIntyre and McKitrick.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/02/06/mcintyre-catches-the-university-of-east-anglia-in-a-web-of-lies/#more-56054
Gee Neville is that what’s on Nova’s site today? Can you tell us whats on Wattsy too. And Bolta’s – we’re unable to go there ourselves.
“Rainfall varies NATURALLY all over OZ to an incredible degree as the record shows, but to pick out a couple of recent spatial spots and claim they are caused by AGW is ridiculous.” – WHY? this shows what a total dickwit you are – you expect a uniform effect do you. What sheer stupidity. And those spatial spots happen to be massive and right in the bread basket.
So after some considerable alarm in the bush on these issues brought up producer organisations, industry and the public, the government funds a forensic investigation of SEA, SWWA and SEQ. Interestingly the same researchers find no AGW influence in SEQ. If they were slavish devotees wouldn’t you think they would have? Why let a chance like that slip by?
So Neville – just suppose YOU had to work out whether AGW had any INFLUENCE on Australian regional rainfall – how do you think methodologically you would go about such a thing? Come on Neville – tell us …
And the reason that you can’t is that you have no ability to research anything. You are clueless as where to start. Reduced to telling us what Nova said today or Bolta and regurgitating the old BoM time series graphs.
Little Lukey,
“WHY? this shows what a total dickwit you are ..”
Now there is a really persuasive argument. You gonna be the last hold out with the scammers Little Lukey??
http://notrickszone.com/2012/02/06/body-blow-to-german-global-warming-movement-major-media-outlets-unload-on-co2-lies/
Yeah, an influential Socialist and Environmentalist wrote a book knocking the CO2 scam!! Don’t be the last one to bail Little Lukey. The peasants pitchforks and torches can hurt!!
Sea ice build-up on England’s “Med”.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-16889200
“Gee Neville is that what’s on Nova’s site today? Can you tell us whats on Wattsy too. And Bolta’s – we’re unable to go there ourselves.”
Thanks Neville.
Read them, have ya Lukie? Good stuff, eh?
Specially Jo’s. D’ya reckon Cook will feature Monckton’s refute on SS?
Thanks for that SD. Geezzz Luke where do we start. Well just listened to a fellow on Vic Country Hour and he is an expert on Enso etc from USA.
He’s giving talks at a Sydney conference at the moment and he stated that the changes over the last few decades in El nino and La nina are probably natural.
Didn’t listen to it properly but I’ll try to get the info later and who he is. But I’m sure the last thing you should do to fix the spatial rainfall drop off in SE OZ or VIC or TAS or SWWA problem is bring in a Co2 tax. Of course Vic is lineball and SE OZ is showing a positive trend.
Even Flannery states it wouldn’t make a difference for up to 1,000 years even if the entire world stopped emitting today. And he’s a full on looney when it comes to CAGW.
The only thing we can do is to adapt to whatever the climate throws at us. The fact is Luke we can’t change anything even though the Labor party are stupid enough to try with their idiot co2 tax.
Thanks for that German story Kkat. let’s hope it becomes a story that’s soon told all over the world, but in the MSM this time as well.
But what a total fraud and con this mitigation of CAGW is and so easy to understand. The Germans have got an unbelievable mess on their hands after wasting scores of billions of Euros on this fraudulent nonsense.
This always happens when you listen to leftwing lunatics, every time.
Diversionary smoke about AGW celebs and carbon taxes to avoid a climate science discussion.
Burn witches and books.
Of course natural variability exists – and the science position is that current and impact on ENSO is unclear. But that’s not the southern Australian AGW mechanism of influence being hypothesised with a moderate degree of evidence.
After a day’s flood fence rebuilding – exercises, exercises, we must do our exercises.
Anyone know of a Luke comment form here getting taken up on another blog?
Hope Jen is going well today and tomorrow,
She is speaking in Sydney about some of the insanity that surrounds us re climate change and in particular the fiasco of water reform.
Here is something I got today….I would really like you, Luke, to think about this from the perspective of people who are trying to recover from the millenium drought and who do desperately need some sanity to prevail.
Those spatial spots did occur in Australia’s bread basket and I do believe that ORIGINALLY we had people who were trying to understand that and even come up with some ‘common sense’ management ideas.
As far as I’m concerned…very unfortunately….this is what has happened and all of us, including the ranting AGW celebs the scientists need to understand that we’re attempting to solve the wrong problem and we’re using the wrong scale as well: This is not mine, but I’m sure the author will not mind me reproducing it….it does come from a policy expert who has training in the science as well:
I have come to the conclusion that the Water Act 2007 and the Murray Darling Basin Authority is a failed experiment. What has been demonstrated is that the national scale is the wrong scale to be managing water.
The MDBA has been unable to produce a practical plan for the management of the Murray Darling Basin, and this is agreed by all parties. All governments should walk away from the Murray Darling Basin Plan, including the Commonwealth Government.
What is needed is an honest review of all the institutional arrangements relating to water, and a new structure which allocates responsibility, funding and accountability at the appropriate scale.
WRT to the thread
Luke might need a new supply of sandbags
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/02/06/germany-in-skeptical-turmoil-on-both-climate-and-windfarms/
‘Of course natural variability exists – and the science position is that current and impact on ENSO is unclear.’
We know the sun has an impact on the NAO, but not sure of the influence on ENSO. The solar cycle may directly effect the IPO, which would explain a lot about how regional cooling and warming spreads worldwide.
The ten year lag?
Well look at these few grains of truth that have been found in Greenland:
“The find is final proof that the first Vikings to live in Greenland did grow barley – the most important ingredient in making a form of porridge, baking bread and of course in brewing beer, traditionally seen as the staple foods in the Vikings’ diet.”
http://www.pasthorizonspr.com/index.php/archives/02/2012/viking-barley-in-greenland
Unprecedented? Sure, it’s all that water from our new tropics and that extra dry SE patch but who knows whats happening round Tas SD? Good records are growing though including fickle Lake George, so just watch it!
“Gee Neville is that what’s on Nova’s site today? Can you tell us whats on Wattsy too. And Bolta’s –”
Guys; see the latest Media Watch and the following ABC forum There is enough right wing crap building up here to ground another cruise ship
And speaking over those anomalous anomalies and those circulation changes
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 39, L02702, 5 PP., 2012
doi:10.1029/2011GL050337
A recent and abrupt decline in the East African long rains
Key Points
There has been an abrubt decline in East African rainfall
The rainfall decline is associated with abrupt changes in the tropical Pacific
The Indian Ocean does not appear to be a primary factor as previously suggested
Bradfield Lyon
International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Earth Institute at Columbia University, Palisades, New York, USA
David G. DeWitt
International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Earth Institute at Columbia University, Palisades, New York, USA
The successive failure of the East African short rains (typically October-December) and subsequent long rains (March-May) in 2010–11 plunged much of the region into severe drought, impacting millions of people and triggering a humanitarian crisis. While poor short rains in 2010 were generally anticipated given linkages with La Niña, the subsequent long rains do not exhibit similar predictability. Here we show the long rains failure in boreal spring of 2011 is consistent with a recurrent large-scale precipitation pattern that followed their abrupt decline around 1999. Using observations and climate model simulations, we show the abrupt decline in long rains precipitation is linked to similarly abrupt changes in sea surface temperatures, predominately in the tropical Pacific basin.
“The observed shift
in Pacific SSTs in the late 1990s does not appear to be
closely related to previously identified patterns of decadal
variability in the basin and is not explained simply by
changes ENSO behavior [e.g., Merrifield, 2011]. What
caused the shift is a currently unresolved question. Our
analysis does not preclude decadal variability or the influence
of anthropogenic forcing.”
Media Watch, the ABC, and GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS. Which takes the cake for slob reportage and juvenile tricksterism?
I hope I don’t create another rant and scoffing,
I don’t usually want to link reports because as Luke often proves they are all so contradictory that it’s possible to state almost anything about the climate and find a model/graph/study to give it some credibility.
But here is links to data supplied by BoM and their “Special Climate Statement 38″
Which concludes that 2010- 2011 are Australia’s wettest 2 year period on record.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs38.pdf
This is ‘real data’ and this is the information that needs to be fed into those projective models….1000′s of them….to update them correctly.
You never know….the odds indicate that maybe a few of them may get close….but it is almost certain they won’t be the models that the AGW celebs and our current political agenda have hijacked.
Of course this report is qualified by the usual disqualifiers but it is the raw data that is worth looking at.
I couldn’t help but notice in the navigating through the BoM site the current water storage levels for the mainland states:
State Current Last Year
WA 93.9% 78.5%
NT 94.4% 85.1%
SA 89.7% 92.0%
QLD 94.0% 99.7%
NSW 75.2% 68.8%
VIC 75.6% 69.3%
ACT 95.9% 100.0%
Look to me, by and large, that Australia is in pretty good shape for water storage.