Official Seasonal Forecasts Wrong Again
Posted by jennifer, December 23rd, 2010 - under News, Opinion.
Tags: Climate & Climate Change, Floods
“Let’s hope Santa isn’t relying on weather forecasts from the U.K. Met Office. The British deep freeze of recent weeks (which has also immobilized much of continental Europe) is profoundly embarrassing for the official forecaster. Just two months ago it projected a milder than usual winter.
“This debacle is more than merely embarrassing. The Met Office is front and centre in rationalizing the British government’s commitment to fight catastrophic man-made global warming with more and bigger bureaucracy, so its conspicuous errors raise yet more questions about that “settled” science…
Meanwhile in Australia, the Bureau of Meteorology was forecasting below average rainfall for those parts of the Murray Darling Basin that were dumped on early September, with the worst flooding in 15 years. Last summer (2009-2010) the forecast was for more dry, and overall we have been led to believe it wouldn’t ever rain again like it used to, thus the investment in desalination etcetera.
And because the mainstream media, at least most journalists, are partial to Anthropogenic Global Warming theory, they don’t hold the Bureau accountable for any of their expensive and wrong seasonal forecasts.
Back to the UK, according to Peter Foster: “[T]he price tag on the country’s unpreparedness for this winter could reach $15-billion.”
And in Australia, never mind even trying to even get an estimate on what unpreparedness for the floods might be costing, we can’t even get the relevant water managers to agree that topping up a deluge with releases from a dam only 20 percent full has consequences…
Read more: http://jennifermarohasy.com/blog/2010/12/government-to-finally-act-on-bureaucratic-flooding/
Oh. And from Peter Forster in parting: “…The suggestion that forecasting the climate is easier than forecasting the weather comes into the same category as acknowledging that governments couldn’t run a lemonade stand, but then believing that they can “manage” an economy.”
According to Stewart Franks ‘La Nina events are primary drivers of flood risk and 100 year flood by traditional analysis occurs every 15 years of IPO negative.’
http://www.lavoisier.com.au/articles/greenhouse-science/weather/Franks2007.pdf
Let’s see more of this ‘traditional analysis’, it beats the pants off those poorly programmed models.
Neutral looks a fair bet, but only for a few months before a weak Nina comes into play. Similar to the mid-1950s.
For Lukes edification
1. “Flannery is an advisor on climate change to South Australian Premier Mike Rann, and is a member of the Queensland Climate Change Council established by the Queensland Minister for Sustainability, Climate Change and Innovation Andrew McNamara”.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Flannery
2. Flannery’s predictions on tape..just one of a number of sources
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/out_of_context_flannery_explains_his_dud_predictions/P40/
3. http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=rain&area=aus&season=0112&ave_yr=T
Showing long term trend for the whole of the MDB for the last 100 or so years.
Happy New Year
Malcolm – yawn – it’s “a viewpoint” among many many. You really have no idea. Are you saying that Flannery alone determines govt policy. Do tell ….
El Gordo – yawn again – well known for at least 10 years. The models are “poorly programmed” are they – you’ve inspected the code?
And why Malcolm would you quote a whole Australian or even MDB time series in a large continent with major spatial trends. You wonder why scientists roll their eyes.
The so called scientists can roll their eyes anyway they like… the point of quoting the MDB was precisely because it was important in the water shortage/usage and more dams debate.
..and because you hadnt noticed….as is usually the case… the MDB isnt the whole of Australia…nor had I made mention of the whole of Australia.
But I hope for their sake and the countries, that their reading and comprehension skills are better than the standard you have demonstrated.
Of course Flannery was but one view point… but it was a very influential one from the warmanistas side. The ABC and Labor Govt officials were all over him…why else would they appoint him to all the committees handling the issues involved.
The models can’t predict ENSO six months ahead, that’s why I’m having a crack at it.
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2010/12/11/aggie-joke-dessler-claims-that-climate-models-can-forecast-enso/
Dessler was talking through his hat.
http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2010/12/30/lawrence-solomon-75-climate-scientists-think-humans-contribute-to-global-warming/#ixzz19g02SUhj
Whilst we are about it, here is yet more reporting/analysis that questions the ethical integrity of the IPCC and its grossly overhyped status.
So it turns out that the frequent claim that the consensus of 2500 scientists isnt really that at all…its more lilkely no more than 75.
Why isnt that fraudulent misrepresentation.?
“The models can’t predict ENSO six months ahead, that’s why I’m having a crack at it.”
Does that mean “Guess” based on some strong personal feelings?
This is not a guess, more a pinch of intuition combined with a dash of deduction. The unusually cold subsurface temperature in the central east Pacific is the key.
The guesses are left to the ” eye rollers”…they know how to dress the guesses up.
This is a standout and supports my argument.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/nino34SSTMonE120.gif
Bastardi and Corbyn discuss supercomputers and their relevance in forecasting.
http://autonomousmind.wordpress.com/2011/01/02/bastardi-and-corbyn-reply/
The whole NH is now in the grip of unusually cold conditions and its not what the models forecast for a warmer world. This CAGW theory has had its day.
http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2011/01/crises-in-east.html
You shouldn’t encourage Steve Goddard. He immediately misinterprets Dessler’s quote-apparently “simulate”=”forecast” in his lexicon,then refuses to actually go through the weekly La Nina/El Nino advisories from NOAA CPC. He seems to forget that ENSO indices on a monthly basis are very volatile,and they spend quite a lot of time in the neutral state. He has picked one forecast to make his “point”.
If he did go through the weekly outlooks,his simplistic claims would be exposed. The criteria for positive or negative is quite stringent,depending on the accumulation of overlapping three-monthly blocks.,and the neutral range is within plus or minus 0.5C around the Nino3.4 mean,or within plus or minus 8 on the SOI. Goddard ignores all this. The models project developments quite well, and Goddard is yet to actually analyse anything.
“simulate”=”forecast”
‘If you can’t predict ENSO, you obviously can’t predict the climate.’ A good sub would have changed it to read: If you can’t simulate ENSO, you obviously can’t predict the climate.
Do you seriously think anyone has ‘dealt’ with a subject like ENSO modelling by using a one-line dismissal? Goddard can dish out the rubbish because he has no responsibility to be dispassionate or accurate or useful…that’s my issue with him: he is without constructive purpose,beyond entertaining a few fellow-travellers.
Simulation of ENSO is pretty good,if you bother reading the reams of forecasts,and work over the decades on ENSO effects,and ENSO reconstruction.
Maybe you’d like to flesh out why difficulties with the exact timing of crossing ENSO index threshholds makes climate unpredictable over a century.
More nonsense El Gordo – ENSO is a wiggle on the long term climate. Nobody is saying one can predict the weather on July 7 2039 or seasonal climatic conditions in spring 2039 …. for heavens sake.
It’s the old initial conditions vs boundary conditions ruse argument.
The only reason we have ENSO forecasts of sorts is that the ENSO or anti-ENSO pattern phase locks in winter for spring and summer. The ocean-atmosphere machinery once started, displays persistent and evolving behaviour.
As for your NOAA link – what’s the skill level of that forecast? mathematically
‘What’s the skill level of that forecast? mathematically.’
Not sure, but I could probably get 10/1 with a bookie.
Before this thread drifts into the archive I will leave a link with a question for Luke. What is the ‘as yet undetermined multidecadal forcing phenomena that operates in the SE Pacific sector of the southern ocean.’?
http://www.agu.org/journals/ABS/2002/2000PA000602.shtml