Over at Prometheus, it has been noted that observed global average surface temperatures for 2000 to 2007 are failing to follow the projected IPCC A1F1 scenario despite the fact that CO2 emissions are rising in line with the high end prediction. Of course, we don’t know how long this will continue, or when and if the record temperature for 1998 wil be broken.
Meanwhile, Roger Pielke Sr has looked at 3 other global warming or cooling metrics, namely lower tropospheric warming, atmospheric water vapor content, and oceanic heat content. Pielke Sr concludes that:
“An examination of even the most fundamental of climate metrics show that recent trends are inconsistent with the 2007 IPCC claims regarding global warming. This includes a lack of warming in the global average lower tropospheric temperature and upper ocean, the muted at best moistening of the troposphere, and evidence of a negative radiative feedback. These lack of agreement with these climate metrics indicate that the IPCC report should be interpreted as a collection of papers on a hypothesis rather than a summary of established scientific understanding of how humans are altering the climate system.”
With the above in mind, global average temperature is losing it potency as an observational scare, and the scene is set for climate alarmists to shift the focus onto ‘ocean acidification.’ A email from Bob Carter dropped into my mailbox on 18th December suggesting that the IPCC have been preparing for such a debate shift for some time.
Lo and behold, on 6th January, a weblog called Never Ending Math Equation came up with this blog post:
“Given that this debate is often as fruitful as debating a creationist on evolution, I propose a different tact in winning support for timely action on this issue: explain the looming problem of ocean acidification.” Read the entire post here.
Of course, the oceans are alkaline and dissolved CO2 makes them less alkaline although acidification is the accepted terminology. Bob Carter provided a link to an excellent New Zealand account of the background to the acidification of the ocean scare. The text, though scientific, is written without detailed technicalities to a degree that renders most of it appreciable by non-scientists. The 3 part Seafriends article, ‘Ocean acidification – Are oceans becoming more acidic and is this a threat to marine life?’ can be found here.
So, if you feel inclined, follow all the links above and prepare for a possible climate debate shift.