Dr Marohasy was publically documenting discrepancies – including incomplete data sets being used by top UK climate scientists that spuriously support the case for global warming – before the now infamous emails from the Climate Research Centre in the UK were leaked.  She gives informative and entertaining talks on global warming and other environmental issues [ http://jennifermarohasy.com/display/speaker.html ].

Update December 1st, 2009 -  What a momentous week in Australian federal politics!  And this morning, against considerable odds, a so-called climate change sceptics, Tony Abbot, took over as leader of the Opposition.   It is now likely that the National and Liberal parties will unite behind Mr Abbot, and those passionate on this issue will fight very hard on the issue of emissions trading and the science of climate change.   The mainstream media have always been dismissive of Tony Abbot.  They are now going to have to at least report him on these issues and it may be in the context of an early federal election.  

It is a great day for democracy in Australia. 

The mainstream media has been offensively biased on the issue of man-made global warming.  A journalist and friend recently described them as acting as “attack dogs”.   Most journalists and editors never thought there was any real opposition in the Liberal party to the ETS, they should reflect on how wrong they were and  now try and honestly understand Tony Abbot’s position and give other so-called sceptics a fair hearing.

Update November 24th, 2009 – Today the Australian Parliament is likely to vote for an emissions trading scheme in effect introducing very costly and unnecessary new legislation and regulation on the basis carbon dioxide is a pollutant and the Earth’s climate in crisis.

I recently received a postcard by snail mail with comment that this blog is a “little island of sanity in a mad world”.

I have certainly found it reassuring at times to read some of the comments in support of my blog posts explaining why there is no climate crisis. 

But alas it seems the Australian government is going to ignore rational debate and discuss in favour of politics.

And recently I received a copy of a new book by Christopher Booker entitled ‘The Real Global Warming Disaster: Is the obsession with climate change turning out to be the mostly costly scientific blunder in history?’ (Continuum 2009) and it begins:

“This book tells the story of what has been, scientifically and politically, one of the strangest episodes of our time. Indeed, as a case study in collective human psychology, it is turning out to have been one of the most extraordinary chapters in the history of our species.”

Feel free to continue to post at this increasingly long thread, though I feel I have probably contributed as much as I can by way of new blog posts to rational discussion on environmental issues including global warming/the climate crisis. 

Much thanks and cheers.

October 20th, 2009 -  Thanks for the many emails and submissions assuming I will be back soon.   But alas I am still wandering.   Those wanting to be useful could, instead of sending me something to post, make a financial donation to this blog.   There is a little orange button at the right-hand side of this page.   It asks for A$50.  

PS I am making progress with my book – the dystopian fiction.   And the picture of the truck was taken a few days ago in northwestern New South Wales.    

October 7th, 2009 – “Walkabout” is a word we use here in Australia to let others in our community know we are going away for a period of time – perhaps to take more time to reflect on life.  

I’m off for a bit – going walkabout.  

PS I attended a lecture by Professor Bob Carter last night and was reminded that not so long ago the English speaking world believed all Swans to be white.   The photograph of the black swans was taken by Jennifer Marohasy in western Victoria, Australia, in October 2007.

He contacted me about six years ago when I was working on the Murray River and water issues. He expressed concern about Australia’s great artesian basin and over extraction of what he considered a finite resource.

We later corresponded over climate change issue. Lance believed we must try harder to understand the causes of natural climate change instead of assuming anthropogenic global warming. He was particularly interested in the oceans as a source of carbon dioxide. On June 24, 2009 he wrote:

“The relationship between CO2 and ocean temperature is ordained by the solubility relationship.   I attach [see above] a chart showing my experience curve for the only reliable temperature records we have. It is difficult to argue against a correlation of 0.99.  

I also attach [see below] my experience curve for Global average sea surface temperature and earth rotation. Note the correlation of 0.99.

The reason why SST, CO2 and LOD correlate so well is that they are all dependent variables. The external driving force is the independent variable. It is the electromagnetic field imposed on the earth which causes motion (rotation) and electromagnetically induced heating. The driving force is nominally from the Sun.

However, I do not believe that the Sun causes its own sunspots. I suspect the source is a pulsating emf from galactic sources. As health and time permit I will contemplate further.”

Lance died last week, on Thursday October 1.  He was 84 years old.

Since his dead I have learnt that before his official retirement Lance was a world authority on rock behaviour and tunnelling, a former president of the Institution of Engineers Australia, and a recipient of its highest award, the Peter Nicol Russell Memorial Medal.

He had worked on the Snowy Mountain hydroelectricity scheme and was once Pro-Vice Chancellor at Melbourne’s Monash University.

Lance did not consider nature or climate benign and man rather puny in the scheme of things… unless we harness science and ideas in practical ways to protect and nurture civilization. Thus Lance championed big infrastructure projects.

He encouraged me at different times, suggesting that it was important to stay “candid and thoughtful”.

Lance Endersbee died last week, but his ideas will live on.

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Links and Notes

Lance Endersbee: 

Emeritus Professor, AO, FTSE. ME, Hon FIEAust., Hon Mem Eng Inst Canada, F.ASCE. Former Pro Vice Chancellor, Monash University, 1988-9, Dean, Faculty of Engineering, 1976-88.

Extensive career in hydropower engineering and water resource projects 1950-1976 in Australia and overseas with Snowy Mountains Authority, Hydroelectric Commission of Tasmania, and the United Nations.

Vice Pres. Int Soc Rock Mechanics 1966-70. Pres. IEAust 1980, Cr 1967-80.

Recipient: Peter Nicol Russell award 1986, Chapman Medal 1967, Warren Prize 1963.

Book, A Voyage of Discovery, a history of ideas about the earth, with a new understanding of the global resources of water and petroleum, and the problems of climate change. 2005.

Blog posts:

http://jennifermarohasy.com/blog/2008/02/carbon-dioxide-versus-temperature/ 

http://jennifermarohasy.com/blog/2007/09/the-atmosphere-is-thin-and-oceans-shallow-an-illustration-and-note-from-lance-endersbee/ 

http://jennifermarohasy.com/blog/2007/09/atmospheric-carbon-dioxide-levels-follow-sea-surface-temperature-a-note-from-lance-endersbee/

 On Line Opinion Author:

 http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/author.asp?id=261 

The Great Artesian Basin and Plutonic water  http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=1215

“And the scientists regularly put forward in the media as the world’s leading climate experts often turn out to be computer modelers with little or no background in climate science…

Read more from Myron Ebell here.

And of course Graeme Pearman who many in Australia assume to be a climate scientist, actually trained as a biologist and has a PhD in carbon budgeting. 

As an example of the bias, consider this interview by ABC Journalist Sabra Lane.

I GATHER Malcolm Turnbull, the leader of Australia’s right of centre party, the Australian Liberal Party, is planning to instruct his senators to support the Emissions Trading Scheme when the Australian federal parliament next sits… ostensibly because business wants certainty.

And last Saturday, the only member of that party that has spoken out against the consensus position on anthropogenic global warming, Dennis Jensen, appears to have lost Liberal Party pre-selection for his seat of Tangney in Western Australia.  He was the only sitting member to be challenged.

Meanwhile the independent Senator, Steve Fielding, has written to every Australian senator urging them to look at the above graph and ask themselves the key question:  What is driving climate change?

Senator Fielding has suggested if they can’t answer that simple question they shouldn’t be voting for the emissions trading scheme.  

He has also suggested it’s the biggest economic decision in this country’s history, one which is too important to vote along party lines.

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Notes and Links

http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/the-real-reason-ill-fight-in-the-senate-on-climate-change
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/07/19/2629985.htm
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/breakfast/stories/2009/2630335.htm

He claims to have survived the freezing conditions by sleeping in a log and eating leaves and seed.

His story has resulted in lots of advice in mainstream media articles about how to survive in the bush with some experts commenting that he should have taken his mobile phone, four litres of water, eaten insects rather than plants, worn a beanie and the list goes on. But I’m yet to read a story that explains the value of a compass.

I regularly bushwalk in the area and always take my compass, tucked in my camera bag. I’ve been temporarily lost before, not in the Jamieson Valley, but regularly when I did field work in the riverine forests of south west Madagascar. Without reference to a compass it is difficult to maintain a direction in forested areas.

Media reports explain that the 17 year-old Australian bushwalker who died in the same region a few years ago didn’t have a map. But I haven’t been able to determine from these same reports whether or not he had a compass. It would seem to me that a map, without a compass, would be of limited use. 

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Notes and Links

The photograph shows Jennifer Marohasy running through heathland towards Lockleys Pylon which overlooks the Gross Valley in the Blue Mountains. The photograph was taken on Tuesday – the day before Jamie Neale was found alive in the Jamieson Valley.
http://www.wildwalks.com/bushwalking-and-hiking-in-nsw/blue-mountains-leura/lockleys-pylon.html

Stories about Jamie Neale:

Police had expressed frustration Mr Neale did not register his plans with police or the National Parks and Wildlife Service before setting out on July 3.  Police also urged bushwalkers to use personal locator beacons that are available free of charge from Springwood and Katoomba police stations and the National Parks and Wildlife Service. Police had said finding Mr Neale was “like searching for a needle in a haystack”. http://www.bluemountainsgazette.com.au/news/local/news/general/lost-bushwalker-found-alive/1568799.aspx

Mr Neale, 19, from North London, had been missing since July 3, and was last seen above Ruined Castle, a rock formation in the Jamison Valley, about midday, police said.  http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/london/8150982.stm?ls

Jamie Neale, 19, of London was found by two “bushwalkers” about nine miles from where he had last been seen, New South Wales police said. He was taken to a hospital to be treated for dehydration and exposure, the BBC reported Wednesday. http://www.upi.com/Top_News/2009/07/15/British-backpacker-found-safe-in-Australia/UPI-17691247638032/

10 ways to survive in the wild
A British teenager has survived a fortnight lost in the Australian bush. What are the dos and don’ts of staying alive in terrain like that?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/magazine/8151510.stm

National Parks and Wildlife Service regional manager Geoff Luscombe says he should have been carrying a minimum four litres of water. The essential items for a day walk also include clothing for all weather, a waterproof coat, warm jumpers, a beanie and socks.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,25791842-28737,00.html

Stories about David Iredale:

The NSW Ambulance Service has issued another apology over its handling of emergency calls, at a coronial inquest into the death of a teenage bushwalker. School boy David Iredale, 17, became lost while on a bushwalk with two friends west of Sydney in December 2006.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/05/07/2564042.htm?site=news

Soon afterwards, David made the first of three calls to Triple 0 saying he was lost. He was known to have four to five days of food with him and to have water-purification tablets, meaning he could fill up from creeks and drink safely. Superintendent Paroz had described David as “a keen bushwalker”.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/a-huge-hole-in-davids-family/2006/12/19/1166290543807.html

He had left his companions, did not have a map with him and kept moving after making his phone calls for help to police.
Bushwalkers Wilderness Rescue Squad president Keith Maxwell told The Daily Telegraph that not having a map was a massive obstacle.
“The difficulty is that David would have had to have found the tracks that came through off Mount Solitary to link up to a fire road which would take him up out of the valley – and it appears he didn’t have a map,” he said.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw-act/no-clue-to-how-missing-teen-died/story-e6freuzi-1111112711937

Consider the 30-odd protesters who held placards outside the breakfast he spoke at this morning in Melbourne. The scruffy-lot, lead by a farmer Leon Ashby, were not there because someone paid them, but because they are outraged by Al Gore and what he has thrust on the world. In particular, his belief that we already have a climate crisis and that the only solution is carbon trading.

It might all sound well meaning. But it is going to be expensive. Indeed, quoting Ronald Bailey from Reason magazine, cap and trade in the US will be the largest corporate welfare program ever enacted in the history of the United States. And the corporations hope government is just as generous to them here in Australia.

Indeed if there were any in the pay of big oil at Dockland Peninsula this morning, they would have been inside applauding the big man.

Has the big end of town ever taken to holding placards? I don’t think so.

A protest like the one in Melbourne this morning was about the seemingly disempowered and disenfranchised attempting to be heard. Of course history is replete with stories of such groups finding their voice and a crowd – eventually.

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Links and Notes

Leon Ashby heads a new political party called ‘The Climate Sceptics’  http://www.climatesceptics.com.au/  

The above photograph, via Leon Ashby, shows demonstrators at Dockland Peninsula this morning.

There have been other protests in the US:

A leaflet with 17 Questions will be given to guests as they arrive.
The message of the protest will be, since Gores movie was produced:
* Global temperatures have decreased;
* The Arctic Ice Cap has increased back to average levels;
* Sea levels have stopped rising;
* Only 5 independant IPCC scientists said they agreed CO2 was the cause of Climate change (not 2,500);
* 31,000 Us Scientists have signed a petition saying there is no conclusive evidence CO2 causes climate change;
* The IPCC temperature predictions have been shown to be wrong; and
* The Vostock Ice cores show (in past warming events) temperature rises before CO2 does  (the opposite of Al Gores claims).

The protesters conclude AL GORE IS WRONG, Climate Change is natural – not man made. 

We believe the evidence is overwhelming and the world deserves a proper debate before we reverse our economies and standards of living and starve millions of third world people all for no climatic benefit.

Leon Ashby
President The Climate Sceptics

More on NoAl from Blunt at Knutz here.

I learnt a lot during the six years – especially early on with Andrew McIntyre teaching me how to write opinion (without reference to endnotes or footnotes) and Mike Nahan was always enthusiastic and supportive of my endeavours to understand the real state of the Murray River environment.

I had great hopes for the planned collaboration between the IPA and University of Queensland on evidence-based environmentalism but the University proved too timid and conservative – at least for me.

I have also left the Australian Environment Foundation (AEF) Executive. My five years with the organisation was always challenging and at times very rewarding. I gave the organisation a lot, and it is now time to move on. I am proud of my efforts in getting the petition and e-postcard website up and functioning. Every conference was also lots of work, but the speakers and delegates never disappointed. I wish Alex Stuart all the best as he takes over as Acting Chair.

I am going to have to find a new job, or perhaps start a small business (If anyone is interested in antique Asian pottery I have a collection for sale.). But I am giving myself some time while I ponder, to continuing writing my first work of fiction – a dystopian fiction based in a remote Indonesian fishing village. Ron Manners will be pleased to know that ‘The Art of Fiction’ by Ayn Rand is a source of reference and inspiration.

This blog will continue to provide an opportunity for me to share ideas including with those who never agree with me, discuss radical new theories and occasionally even break news. The plot in my dystopian fiction revolves around an environmental campaign that spins out of control. In an attempt to better understand motivations I started posting the series ‘Defining the Greens’. A reader (Larry) subsequently suggested I begin a series ‘Defining the Sceptics’ and this has proven as interesting.

I will continue to write my fortnightly column for The Land. This Thursday it’s on solar power.

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This post is based on my most recent monthly email to those subscribed at my website. If you would like to receive monthly updates by email directly from Jennifer Marohasy subscribe here: http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/subscribe.php

The picture shows Jennifer with Richard A. Epstein (immediate right) and Garry Johns (far right of picture) at an IPA – UQ function in Brisbane in August 2004.

The US Environment Protection Agency had one of its employees, a 35-year veteran of the agency, Alan Carlin, critique the supporting technical documentation for the legislation. Mr Carlin’s report advised that the scientific hypothesis on which the draft legislation is based is seriously flawed. Instead of considering the report in some detail, Mr Carlin was censored. The claim of censorship runs contrary to the new President’s promises of more transparency as explained by Kimberley A. Strassel in the Wall Street Journal:

“ONE of President Barack Obama’s first acts was a memo to agencies demanding new transparency in government, and science.

“The nominee to head the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Lisa Jackson, joined in, exclaiming, ‘As administrator, I will ensure EPA’s efforts to address the environmental crises of today are rooted in three fundamental values: science-based policies and program, adherence to the rule of law, and overwhelming transparency.’ In case anyone missed the point, Mr. Obama took another shot at his predecessors in April, vowing that ‘the days of science taking a backseat to ideology are over.’

“Except, that is, when it comes to Mr. Carlin, a senior analyst in the EPA’s National Center for Environmental Economics and a 35-year veteran of the agency. In March, the Obama EPA prepared to engage the global-warming debate in an astounding new way, by issuing an ‘endangerment’ finding on carbon. It establishes that carbon is a pollutant, and thereby gives the EPA the authority to regulate it — even if Congress doesn’t act. Around this time, Mr. Carlin and a colleague presented a 98-page analysis arguing the agency should take another look, as the science behind man-made global warming is inconclusive at best.

“The analysis noted that global temperatures were on a downward trend. It pointed out problems with climate models. It highlighted new research that contradicts apocalyptic scenarios. ‘We believe our concerns and reservations are sufficiently important to warrant a serious review of the science by EPA,’ the report read.

“The response to Mr. Carlin was an email from his boss, Al McGartland, forbidding him from ‘any direct communication’ with anyone outside of his office with regard to his analysis. When Mr. Carlin tried again to disseminate his analysis, Mr. McGartland decreed: ‘The administrator and the administration have decided to move forward on endangerment, and your comments do not help the legal or policy case for this decision. . .. I can only see one impact of your comments given where we are in the process, and that would be a very negative impact on our office.’ Mr. McGartland blasted yet another email: ‘With the endangerment finding nearly final, you need to move on to other issues and subjects. I don’t want you to spend any additional EPA time on climate change. No papers, no research etc, at least until we see what EPA is going to do with Climate.’

“Ideology? Nope, not here. Just us science folk. Honest.”

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Notes and Links

The EPA Silences a Climate Skeptic – The professional penalty for offering a contrary view to elites like Al Gore is a smear campaign. The Wall Street Journal. By KIMBERLEY A. STRASSEL http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124657655235589119.html

Part 1 of this series is here: http://jennifermarohasy.com/blog/2009/06/rational-advice-on-%e2%80%98carbon-act%e2%80%99-censored/