It doesn’t matter what time of year you drive through this region, known as the Northern Rivers District, it is always green and the wide Clarence is always brimming with water. 

In Australia we repeat the mantra that this is the driest inhabited continent on earth but, according to the World Resource Institute, we have 51,000 litres of available water per capita per day, this is one of the highest in the world, and well ahead of countries such as the United Kingdom with only 3,000 litres per capita per day.  

We have chosen not to dam most of our big rivers, only developing significant infrastructure in the far south – in the dry Murray Darling Basin. 

There are those who, in the past, have wanted rivers like the Clarence dammed and turned inwards to supplement irrigation in the interior – in the Murray Darling Basin.

While it has been claimed damming the river would destroy its environment, such claims are based on little more than value-laden opinion.  There would be environmental benefits from damming in particular from a flood mitigation perspective.  Indeed the regular flooding of urban and industrial centres can’t be good for downstream water quality.

I’m neither for or against the damming of the Clarence, but I wish politicians and the media would at least acknowledge that the recent flooding is an inevitable consequence of development on a flood plain along a mighty river that the locals do not want tamed.

While there has been flooding in parts of eastern Austraslia, much of inland south eastern Australia is still in drought.  The lower reaches of the Murray River are still drying up and a new group was formed recently to lobby for the barrages, built to keep the lower reaches of this river fresh, to be opened to let the Southern Ocean back in to inundate the area.  

It seems that here in Australia we are very much supportive of the status quo.  If a structure has been in place for a long time, for example the barrages at the bottom of the Murray River, we are loathed to dismantle them.  If a structure has never been built, for example flood mitigation for the Clarence River we are loathed to consider it.   I am not sure we were always such a timid, recalcitrant and unwilling lot.

***************

Notes and Links

Recent rainfall not so rare
By ABC weather expert Graham Creed
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/05/23/2578931.htm

Clarence River Stories
http://www.abc.net.au/rural/features/clarenceriver/

Lower Lakes Crisis
http://www.lakesneedwater.org

Saving the Coorong by restoring its native state
http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=7762

The photograph of the dairy cow in the paddock was taken west of Bellinger in the Clarence or Bellinger catchment of the Northern Rivers District in January 2007 by Jennifer Marohasy.

Indeed every time that Lake Eyre in central Australia floods, our oh-so-sensitive-to-nature journalists provide us with the sort of happy purple prose that we see on the front page of today’s The Australian, where Jamie Walker says:

“The torrents that swept down the swollen Georgina and Diamantina rivers, mixing in Goyder Lagoon before surging through Warburton Creek and into the lake proper, carry a bounty of new life: nutrient-rich sediments to feed the thirsty native vegetation that has erupted all around it, and in turn herbaceous native rodents; fish for the mass of birds tracking the flood; all the water the wild camels from the Simpson Desert can drink.”

Meanwhile, every time it rains hard enough in north Queensland for rivers to flood into the Great Barrier Reef lagoon, which represents precisely the same phenomenon as the Diamantina feeding Lake Eyre, journalists at The Australian provide us with much lamenting and concern like the following:

“A MASSIVE surge of polluted water has spewed onto the Great Barrier Reef following heavy rains that hit north Queensland last week, environmentalists say.

The WWF estimated up to one million megalitres – enough polluted water to twice fill Sydney Harbour – entered the reef after a monsoon brought drenching rain to north Queensland.

Mr Heath said satellite imagery confirmed water flows travelled to mid-shelf…”

Nature herself simply doesn’t care about the big environmental impacts and changes, no matter how much birthing, killing or (from our perspective) environmental degradation they may cause – it’s all just part and parcel of being a dynamic planet.

*******************

Cathy has a PhD and lives in Far North Queensland.

The photograph of the pelicans was taken by Jennifer Marohasy below the Torrumbarry Weir, Central Murray Valley, in October 2007.  Pelicans (Pelecanus conspicillatus) can be found in coastal and inland Australia – where ever there are fish.  Some fishermen say that when there are floods on the land there is bounty in the sea.

For instance, engineering techniques for estimating flood risk, where records exist, are largely based on simple statistics of their historic occurrence rather than on any real understanding of the processes that actually cause them.

In essence, if we have 100 years of flood record, then the largest flood measured represents, more or less, the hundred year flood level. This hundred year flood level is probably the most important of hydrological statistics in terms of its use in planning management. It is the yardstick by which decisions are made.

The problem with a simple statistical representation of risk is that it implies a static climate – the expected flood risk is equally likely in any year, irrespective of the actual climate processes that may or may not be dominating at that particular time. If this were the case, we would expect to see an equal spread of floods throughout our historical records. In Australia and in fact many other parts of the world, this is not so.

The observed history of Australian flood risk demonstrates that this fundamental assumption is invalid – climate is not static – Australia regularly experiences epochs lasting between 20 to 40 years where extreme floods cluster only to then be succeeded by a similarly long period where droughts dominate and extreme floods are rare occurrences.

In Australia, between 1910 and 1945, long-term and persistent drought dominated the Australian climate – very few floods were experienced – this was largely due to the dominance of El Nino events.

Around 1945, we experienced a major change in climate from this previously El Nino dominated regime to one dominated by La Nina events. This led to as much as a three-fold rise in the average annual maximum flood. The dominance of La Nina and associated southward shift in the location of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone meant that rainfall was frequent, and frequently extreme.

Around 1975 we had another major climate shift – a marked change in the Pacific that is associated with a return to El Nino event dominance. Once again, Australia suffered repeated droughts and again very few floods.

Since 2001, we’ve had seven years of drought, initiated and then sustained by El Nino conditions, but more recently, the last couple of years have seen a shift towards marked La Nina activity.

Last summer was a classified La Nina event, whilst this summer we saw a late rush of La Nina activity. Consequently we’ve seen an 18-month period of disastrous storms and floods, including the recent widespread flooding.

This recent La Nina activity has not broken the long-term drought everywhere but has been useful in many places where the impacts of ENSO are strong and largely reliable – typically those with summer dominated rainfall regimes – but also with typically devastating consequences.

The double-edged regional impact of La Nina aside, the recent La Nina activity has not made much of an impression in other parts of Australia, notably Victoria and South Australia. Indeed, the recent tragic bushfires are most likely due in large part to the ongoing impact of the unrelenting drought.

Long-term drought in these regions was the primary cause of the initial high bushfire risk leading to the dreadful bushfires – low rainfall means dry combustible fuel. Soil moisture feedbacks mean that when soil moisture is low, the air temperature is hotter, the humidity is lower and the air column itself is more unstable. These conditions are all amenable to increasing extreme bushfire risk.

And so we find ourselves witnessing the iconic extremes of fire and flood devastating different regions of Australia simultaneously. Dorothea would have wept – she might have seen it before us but we are seeing it worse.

Many might even be tempted to say that the current perverse circumstance of deadly bushfires in one part of Australia and widespread flooding in others is a further sign of CO2-driven climate change.

However, an alternative understanding would be that whilst southern states continue to be in drought with the attendant bushfire risk, other regions of Australia may have started to experience a natural change in climate that would be more consistent with their historical instrumental evidence of flood and drought risk, despite increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

The historical record of climate variability suggests that we should expect a return to a 20-40 year period where La Nina dominates the climate of at least eastern Australia once more. The observation that many regions of Australia routinely experience multi-decadal variability of flood and drought, suggest that we should expect a return to major widespread flooding on a regular inter-annual basis, and for entirely natural reasons.

There are other known climate mechanisms relevant to Australia that also display marked multi-decadal variability that only add to the difficulty of climate prediction in different parts of Australia. It is however increasingly recognised that different observed and studied climate modes appear to have definable interactions.

Further studies of the interactions between climate modes may yield additional insights into the possibilities and limitations of prediction and estimation of risk, both now and into the future. They might also inform us on the true relevance of atmospheric CO2 concentrations in a naturally varying climate.

And yet at present Australia’s historic variability does not figure in typical estimates of climate risk for planning purposes. Nor though should we pay much heed to those that may loosely call themselves climate change scientists and who make alarmist claims for the future climte. They should acknowledge that we never could predict the future climate of 10, 20, 50 or 100 years time, at least not with any credibility. It is no different now that we fear CO2.

If we cannot prevent climate-related disasters we can at least prepare for them. The recent tragedies of both fire and flood have lessons to teach. We should engage ourselves in developing more effective measures to reduce our vulnerability to the extreme vagaries of climate variability. More prescribed burns and more flood infrastructure would seem appropriate.

Whether we can predict climate on multiple timescales usefully or not, we should certainly be preparing ourselves for both ends of the spectrum of climate extremes at all times. I would argue that in a country as vulnerable as Australia, this should be happening irrespective of any consideration of possible impacts of increased CO2.

After all, if we fail to cope with natural climate variability what hope have we for coping with any supposedly catastrophic human-induced climate change?

********************

Stewart Franks is an Associate Professor at Newcastle University.

The text is republished from ABC Unleashed with permission from the author.

Margaret Menzel provided the photograph of the drown cattle taken at Cowan, North Queensland, in February 2009.

Over these past three days, about 250 mm of rain has fallen and as expected the causeway crossing over the Cape Tribulation Road has flooded (please excuse the blurred photo).

This is a regular occurrence in the wet season. Two years ago, students living north of Cooper Creek were unable to access 25% of their first term, because of flooding. It is also an almost annual occurrence that a driver will unsuccessfully attempt to cross, losing their vehicle to the power of the flood and being tumbled downstream into crocodile habitat.

Invariably, the impassable floods cause stress to large numbers of travelers on unforgiving schedules. Hundreds of vehicles and pedestrians crowd either side of the water’s edge in a forlorn hope that the combined vigilance and force of will will somehow speed the recession.

Yesterday I witnessed a particularly ugly display of road rage as tensions rose, stopping just short of physical violence. Last time the causeway flooded, a frustrated traveler described the scene as a new order of official mayhem, “Working in Queensland Mental Health, I thought I knew administrative incompetence,” she remarked, “but this is in another order of ineptitude, entirely!”

So how is it that such a well-used and strategically important facet of transportation infrastructure is kept so inadequately low? Surely there is a duty of care to protect the public from such well-known vulnerabilities? Then again, there haven’t yet been any deaths; just a large number of very close calls.

In the lead-up to the Local Council elections (15th March ’08), one candidate has told of the ecological integrity of Cooper Creek as occupying the highest consideration – leaving the causeway incapable of being elevated. As absurd as this notion may sound, it was indeed the ecological values of the Cooper valley that justified unparalleled regulatory protection, under World Heritage and, downstream of the causeway, so that Queensland can compare all potential impacts on all other mangrove communities. So rigorous is this special provision that a person can be fined up to $225,000 if caught fishing, though such sensitivity would seem to fly in the face of the ecological damage of heavy machinery, recovering vehicles washed downstream.

But the stories went on to lump upstream legal and planned irrigation development that makes allocations for environmental flows with legal and illegal levies on grazing land within the marshes. Some levies within the marshes are currently blocking designated environmental flow water from reaching the northern nature reserve.

Some of the media reports suggest a need for more studies, but the solution may simply be to bulldoze levies so that environmental flow can get through to the nature reserve.

Other issues within the marshes that require action, rather than more studies include:
1. Preventing the trampling of bird nesting sites by cattle, and
2. Addressing the general issues of overgrazing.

The Macquarie Marshes is a large non-termial wetland in central western New South Wales covering about 200,000 hectares. Most of this area (88 percent) is privately owned and grazed. There are two publicly-owned nature reserves where cattle are excluded and which are Ramsar-listed, meaning they are considered of international importance for migratory bird species.

The most definitive recent publication on the ecology of the Macquarie Marshes is:

The Macquarie Marshes: An Ecological History
by Gillian Hogendyk
IPA Occasional Papers
http://www.ipa.org.au/publications/publisting_detail.asp?pubid=683

You can see pictures of overgrazing at this blog post:

Cattle killing the Macquarie Marshes, 21October 2005
http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/000949.html

There are pictures of the illegal levies here:

More Water Won’t Save the Macquarie Marshes, 28 March 2006
http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/001282.html

And for more discussion read:

Three Pressing Issues for the Macquarie Marshes, 13 July 2006
http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/001481.html

—————————–
** Yesterday’s stories include:

Report reveals illegal Murray-Darling irrigation. By environment reporter Sarah Clarke
Scientists say the flood plains are being sucked dry and there is no legislation in place to stop further development.
A new report has exposed major flaws in the management of key rivers and flood plains along the Murray Darling Basin. Satellite images of a key wetland in north-western New South Wales reveal more than 2,000 kilometres of earthworks have carved up the waterway. While some of the channels and levees may have been authorised, others are considered illegal and are diverting water into irrigation and farming.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/02/25/2171517.htm

NSW vows crackdown on Murray-Darling earthworks
The New South Wales Government says it will crack down on unauthorised earthworks in the Macquarie Marshes in the state’s north-west. A report by the University of NSW found that more than 2,000 kilometres of channels, levees and dams are carving up the Macquarie Marshes and diverting water into irrigation and grazing areas.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/02/25/2171663.htm

Wetlands in a flap after the rains
February 25, 2008
Birds are winning the battle of the marshes, writes Daniel Lewis.
Wading through Monkeygar Swamp, with magpie geese honking in the sky above, even a vicious bite from the odd leech can’t wipe the smile off Ray Jones’s face.
There’s enough water for significant bird breeding in his beloved Macquarie Marshes for the first time since 2000, and the National Parks field officer is on a high after depressingly dry years.
“When you see these geese taking off you can’t help but smile,” Jones says. A fellow parks employee recently told him: “This is the first time I have seen you smiling for years.”
http://www.smh.com.au/news/environment/wetlands-in-a-flap-after-the-rains/2008/02/24/1203788147733.html

‘Water theft’ threatens Murray-Darling
By DANIEL LEWIS & MARIAN WILKINSON – Australia
Monday, 25 February 2008
A MAZE of levee banks, channels and dams is stealing water from the state’s flood plains and threaten to undermine the $10 billion Murray-Darling Basin rescue plan.
A year-long study by a leading wetlands expert also says environmental water stolen on the flood plain that is home to the iconic Macquarie Marshes has already caused enormous environmental damage.
The report says inappropriate development has continued for decades…
http://www.smh.com.au/news/environment/river-rescue-under-threat/2008/02/24/1203788147679.html

Flood plain development ’stealing water’
February 25, 2008 – 6:35AM
Levee banks, channels and dams are stealing water from NSW flood plains and threatening to undermine the $10-billion Murray-Darling Basin rescue plan.
The authors of a report on flood plain development on the lower Macquarie River say state and federal governments have turned a blind eye to water theft through flood plain harvesting, Fairfax reported on Monday.
http://news.smh.com.au/flood-plain-development-stealing-water/20080225-1ugc.html

‘Water theft’ threatens Murray-Darling
By DANIEL LEWIS & MARIAN WILKINSON – Australia
Monday, 25 February 2008
A maze of levee banks, channels and dams is stealing water from NSW’s flood plains and threaten to undermine the $10 billion Murray-Darling Basin rescue plan.
A year-long study by a leading wetlands expert also says environmental water stolen on the flood plain that is home to the iconic Macquarie Marshes has already caused enormous environmental damage.
…. SOURCE: Sydney Morning Herald.
http://www.farmonline.com.au/news_daily.asp?ag_id=48948

I recently reported that the wet season had well and truly arrived in the Daintree, with over 700 mm of rain in five days.

More recently, Jennifer published the Australian mean rainfall total for 2007 at 497 mm, slightly more than the long-term average of 472 mm.

So, there is no question; the Daintree Cape Tribulation rainforest occupies a very wet part of Australia. Last year we recorded a total rainfall of 4,757 mm and the year before; 6,240 mm.

The most recent deluge, though, was of an intensity not seen for many years. In March of 1996, I recall that 1,219 mm fell in 48 hours. Flooding was so powerful that the Daintree River Ferry was deposited upon its pylons and the road across the heights of the Alexandra section, collapsed.

It must be said, that here in the Daintree rainforest, we brace ourselves in the face of extreme weather events, but they also remind us unequivocally of our subordinance to nature.

If I were to conservatively estimate that only one direct cyclone was to have hit every fifty years, the ancient rainforests of the Daintree would have bore the brunt of 2.7million cyclones over its 135-million year existence. On this basis, it becomes a very regular and recurring event.

In the aftermath, perhaps half the canopy is dislodged to the forest floor and as much as twice the sunlight is able to penetrate to these leafy depths of nutrient abundance. There can be no doubt that the extent of flowering and fruiting is maximised after cyclonic events. All other populations seem to multiply.

And the creeks become magnificent!

For people in coastal areas of Queensland.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TSUNAMI BULLETIN

TSUNAMI THREAT TO EASTERN AUSTRALIA and Willis and Barrier Reef Islands, Lord Howe and Norfolk Islands.

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre in Hawaii has detected an undersea earthquake near Solomon Islands and has issued a Tsunami Bulletin.

The earthquake has also been detected by Geoscience Australia.

FOR ALL OTHER PACIFIC AREAS, THIS MESSAGE IS AN ADVISORY ONLY.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS ORIGIN TIME – 6:40 am EST 02 APR 2007 COORDINATES – 8.6 SOUTH 157.2 EAST LOCATION – SOLOMON ISLANDS MAGNITUDE – 8.1

MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY HONIARA 15CM ZERO-TO-PEAK OBSERVED AT 7:31 am EST EVALUATION

SEA LEVEL READINGS INDICATE A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. IT MAY HAVE BEEN DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER AND COULD ALSO BE A THREAT TO MORE DISTANT COASTS. AUTHORITIES SHOULD TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION IN RESPONSE TO THIS POSSIBILITY. THIS CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SEA LEVEL DATA TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT AND SEVERITY OF THE THREAT.

FOR ALL AREAS – WHEN NO MAJOR WAVES ARE OBSERVED FOR TWO HOURS AFTER THE ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OR DAMAGING WAVES HAVE NOT OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO BOATS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES CAN
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO RAPID CURRENTS. AS LOCAL CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES. ACTUAL ARRIVAL TIMES

MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE LARGEST. THE TIME BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE TSUNAMI WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.

Based on the magnitude and location of the earthquake, tsunami could start affecting these locations at the following local time:

Cooktown from 0931am 02/04/2007
Cairns from 0949am
Brisbane 1033am
Gladstone 1139am
Mackay 1144am

This bulletin is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts and the Bureau’s website at www.bom.gov.au/tsunami/

Dangerous waves and currents may affect beaches, harbours and rivers for several hours from the time of impact and low- lying coastal areas could be flooded.

The waves can be separated in time by between ten to sixty minutes and the first wave of the series may not be the largest.

The Queensland State Emergency Service advises that people should stay away from low lying coastal areas.

This warning will be updated by this morning.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts; the Bureau’s website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 218

Now there is isolated flooding.

Following is a note and some photographs from Ralph Barraclough a landholder and a fire brigade captain with land adjacent and surrounded by the Alpine National Park (pdf file). The National Park contains many nationally significant species including the Bogong Daisy-bush, Mountain Pygmy Possum, Broad-toothed Rat and Alpine Water Skink. Large areas of the park burnt in 2003 and again in December last year.

Greetings,

Well after saving nearly everything when we were burnt out at Licola on December 14 last year, we are now being flooded out.

The damage here is so bad my house would not have a hope in hell of surviving a similar flood again. The debris is nearly as high as the spoutings and the previous biggest flood hight never even got to the footings after 36mm of rain in 20 minutes. This flood was from 28mm in 45 minutes.

Target Creek, Friday night 6pm

The first the locals knew I was in trouble was when 3km away at Licola they saw my worldly posesions floating down the local river. They are collecting my equipment 50km downstream. I live on a small creek that is a tributory.

The flood through my house was so intense it washed a Land Rover engine block out of my shed into the garden. The floor boards came up from the water underneath and tipped over all the stuff I had stored on chaires and stools to try and be above the flood waters. Industrial sewing machines were washed down along the creek.

I nearley drowned trying to get a Land Rover out of a shed when a tidel wave pushed me back in. There was so much debris floating around I had great difficulty remaining upright.

I am expecting more floods like this and this is nowhere like the worst case scenario. The country is just so burnt there is nothing to slow the water from getting into streams. Things are so bad here I will be salvaging as much as possible from my house and taking it to higher ground than Noah would consider drowning. Last week flooding wrecked a building site replacing a lost house from the fire. The new house suffered serious structural damege, a site hut was utterly flattened and a caravan ended up on a meter of debris.

Licola itself was also flooded out. The shop had water through it, all up 2 houses and the living area of the shop may have to be rebuilt. We have had tremendous help from the SES, Police and Wellington Shire and some of the local dear hunters. The CFA has offered very welcome support.

My files from the last 9 years of trying to stop these things from happening were all removed from the house only hours before the flood and survive.

Regards,
Ralph Barraclough
Lincola, Victoria

Target Creek, Saturday morning 10am

Jamieson Road, Saturday morning