Dr Moran also notes that scientists at the conference did not agree on whether there is likely to be global  warming or cooling in the near future or on the key drivers of climate. 

The New York Heartland Conference of “Climate Realists”
By Alan Moran

OVER 700 people attended the second Heartland Conference on Global Warming in March 2009.  At least 100 of these were scientists of considerable prominence and, as Marc Moreno pointed out the crucial part of the IPCC report was signed by only 52 scientists, not all of whom were climate alarmists. 

Among the pantheon of experts and celebrities who addressed the meetings, none were more prominent than the first two speakers: Vaclav Klaus and Richard Lindzen.  Lindzen is Professor of Atmospheric Physics at MIT and probably the most renowned expert in the world in his field.  He reiterated the evidence that global warming was not and could not occur except on a scale that is a fraction of the UN forecasts.  And he argued that the temperature trend, having risen to 1945, fallen to 1968, risen again to 1995, was now falling. 

Klaus is the President of the Czech Republic and presently President of the EU.  On his inaugural address to the EU he emphasised a need for Brussels to seek less power centrally and divest more to the members.  This prompted a walk-out of 200 of the 700 MEPs.  He is a total skeptic about global warming, which he sees as being motivated by a scare campaign in which interested parties – functionaries, scientists, vendors of particular sorts of power plant – combined with green alarmists to introduce the agenda. 

He fears it may be unstoppable and related that he had discussed the matter with President Obama, who had never before heard the skeptic viewpoint but listened intensely.  Later Richard Lindzen discussed the experience of Professor Richard Epstein, a colleague of Obama’s at Chicago University.  Epstein said that he found Obama to be ever-ready to listen but had never known such readiness to lead to a change of mind!    Obama has on several occasions referred to the need to reduce CO2 emissions as among the most pressing issues.

President Obama has appointed several people to high office who are on record as favouring drastic measures to reduce CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions.  Among these is John Holdren (a long time associate of the Club of Rome’s John Ehrlich) as Science Adviser, Stephen Chu as Secretary of Energy, and Carol Browner (former EPA head) as Energy Co-ordinator. 

Altogether there were some 40 papers delivered on the science and politics of climate change.  There is general agreement that some warming has taken place this last 100 years, albeit very much less than the amount that might be expected from the increase in atmospheric CO2 combined with the IPCC’s forecasts of the effect of this on temperatures. 

The scientists did not agree fully on the direction of future climate trends, and the causes of these trends.  Some placed greater emphasis on solar changes, others on oceanic current shifts; most agreed that CO2 increases played a part. 

All however, rejected the positive feedback effect from CO2 forcing which amplifies any theoretical effect of the increase in CO2 on temperatures.  The theoretical warming from a doubling of CO2 is relatively uncontroversial (0.5-0.7 degrees C with present atmospheric levels of CO2; less with future increases as the temperature effect is logrithmatically related to the increased CO2 ) but the feedback is said by the IPCC to result in an affect that increases this to 2-5 degrees C.  An important paper by William Kininmonth, former head of Australia’s National Climate Centre, demonstrated that major positive feedback is impossible.   Some papers, notably that of NASA’s Roy Spencer, produced evidence that the feedback is negative and might totally negate the CO2 effect. 

That might bring the rival explanations into accord.  The 0.5 degree C per century warming that has occurred this last 100 years is consistent with the theoretical level of warming that might occur with a doubling of CO2.  But it is also similar to the warming that has taken place on Mars, Jupiter, Neptune and Pluto.

John Sununu, a former New Hampshire Governor and prominent in the first President Bush’s administration (when he was instrumental in agreeing a vast expansion in funding for climate science) traced the long lineage of the green activists campaigning against economic growth.  Like many others he pointed out that it was temperature rises that drove the increase in CO2 in previous eras of warming (not CO2 which drove the temperature increases) and that there was no theoretical basis for arguing that an increase in CO2 would drive temperature.  Again like many others he pointed out that the rise in temperature in the first half of the 20th Century (when CO2 growth had not been significant), fall in the period till the late 1970s (when alarmist were concerned about global cooling) and rise to the mid 1990s has been followed by a falling trend since then.  

In the EU, MPE Roger Helmer pointed out the objective is for 20% of energy, which implies an unachievable 36% of electricity.  Benny Peiser however detected a softness in the EU, especially outside of the UK.  The present goal is a 15-30% reduction but this is on BAU levels.  Moreover Italy has forced through a measure requiring the EU to revisit all goals in eh event that there is to be no Copenhagen agreement. 

Klaus related data on public opinion regarding greenhouse, which showed support for action in the US to have fallen to 45% and in a recent Rasmussen poll it was rated as 20th out of 20 issues canvassed.  In Czeck Republic only 11% believe that mankind is responsible for global warming.  He also urged continued promotion of the truth about warming or lack of it but thought there was only a slender chance that the moves could be arrested in Europe as a result of the financial crisis and recession. 

Several speakers reviewed the goals of the reductions in CO2 which jurisdictions had mandated.  Californian congressman Tom Mclintock pointed to the absurdity of the state’s AB 32 which requires a 25% reduction and 10% ethanol in petrol (which would require one third of the state’s farmland).  The state has also banned all coal based electricity which is resulting in a near doubling of the contract price. 

Others pointed to the malevolent nature of cap-and-trade (most speakers thought a tax is the lesser of two evils, though acknowledged that if the EU had a tax it would be, say eu 30 rather than the eu 9 that presently prevails under the ETS).  Once introduced it is very difficult to remove since it creates vested interests and property rights. 

Professor Gabriel Calzada, addressed the disaster of wind power that Spain had experienced.  The present program has 10.2% of capacity 14,836 MW of wind and 3000 MW of solar.  Originally costed at eu85 million, the cost according to PWC eu15 billion.  Wind adds 90% to the market price and solar 460%.  Moreover this does not include the subsidy which is up to 50%, for capital installation.  Job creation which was estimated to be 50,000 is now 14,000 and falling.  Most jobs are in installation and therefore the program must increase exponentially if jobs are to grow.  It is estimated that each job has cost eu 500,000 pus the jobs destroyed as a result of the higher taxes/energy charges required to finance them. 

Spain has also seen business leakage.  There are documented cases of firms not proceeding as a result of not having an accredited GHG plan.  For example, one of the largest Spanish firms, stainless steel producer Acerinox, has moved two factories to the US and South Africa in response to the higher energy costs. 

The various papers will eventually be available on-line but in the interim, Professor Bob Carter, as well as presenting a key paper himself, operated a running synopsis of the sessions he attended.

This is at
https://www.quadrant.org.au/blogs/doomed-planet/2009/03/bob-carter-at-heartland-2

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Alan Moran is an economist at the Melbourne-based Institute of Public Affairs.

Meanwhile, Nature has delivered powerful messages recently as to the danger of natural climate change, via Hurricane Katrina in 2005 in USA, and devastating bushfires and floods in Australia in 2009. It is obvious that countries need to be better prepared to understand, cope with and adapt to the damaging effects of these and other natural climatic events and trends. Just like earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, major climatic events are unpredictable long in advance and unstoppable once started.

The appropriate response – and climate policy plan B – is to adapt to such events when and as they occur.

This was the essence of Bob Carter’s presentation to the second international conference on Climate Change in New York.  Professor Carter, compared the relative merits of the current policy of trying to “prevent global warming” by reductions of carbon dioxide emissions (Plan A), with the merits of adapting to climate change as and when it occurs (Plan B).

Professor Carter also argued that adaptation to climate events is intrinsically local or regional in nature, for climate risks vary widely with geography. Importantly, a country that has prepared to deal with the wide vagaries of natural climate change within their territory is, by that very fact, positioned to deal with any human-caused climate change if and when it occurs.

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Read the complete summary of presentations from Day 3 at Quadrant Online.

The President is expected to be blunt when he addresses the 400 strong-audience who have flown in from around the world. 

The theme of the conference is “Global warming: was it ever really a crisis?”  

President Klaus has remarked that there is no climate crisis, but the consequences of a belief in “the crisis” are indeed frightening.

During the recent World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in January, he said environmentalism and the global warming alarmists are challenging our freedom and “radically constraining the functioning of the markets and market economy all around the world”.

Over the next few days I will be posting some papers from the conference and other information at this main page, as miniposts and also at community home.  You can download a pdf of the full program here. For more information and to download podcasts click here.

And for those who can’t wait for this year’s presentations to be uploaded, you can start by listening to the presentations from last year’s conference, the first international Conference on Climate Change, with audio and video from more than 100 speakers here. 

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President Klaus is the author of ‘Blue Planet in Green Shackles’ available from Amazons.

Thanks Bob for another great presentation!

In the New Year, the Institue of Public Affairs is hoping to start a lecture series in Sydney along the lines of the Brisbane Club Lectures and Bob has agreed to give the inaugural lecture.

To be sure to be invited to these and other events become a member of the Institute of Public Affairs.

I was enthralled by a presentation from Stan Goldenberg from NOAA which included photographs taken inside the eye of hurricanes from flights within NOAA’s Hurricane Hunters – WP-3D Turbo Prop Aircraft.

Now there are plans to hold a second conference on March 8-10, 2009, once again in New York City.

According to the press release:

The 2009 International Conference on Climate Change will serve as a platform for scientists and policy analysts from around the world who question the theory of man-made climate change. This year’s theme, ‘Global Warming Crisis: Cancelled’, calls attention to new research findings that contradict the conclusions of the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report.

Hosting the conference for the second consecutive year will be The Heartland Institute, a 24-year-old national nonpartisan think tank based in Chicago. “All of the event’s expenses are being covered by individual and foundation donors to Heartland,” said Dan Miller, executive vice president of the institute. “No corporate dollars earmarked for the event were solicited or accepted.”

“Last March we proved that the skeptics in the debate over global warming constitute the center or mainstream of the scientific community, while the alarmists are on the fringe,” said Heartland President Joseph Bast. “In the past six months, the science has grown even more convincing that global warming is not a crisis. Opinion polls and political events, including the defeat of ‘cap-and-trade’ legislation in the U.S. Senate, also suggest this ‘crisis’ is over. It has been cancelled by sound science and common sense.”

For more information on next year’s conference visit: http://www.heartland.org/events/NewYork09/newyork09.html 

For more information on last year’s conference visit: http://www.heartland.org/NewYork08/proceedings.html

You can read my perspective on Day 1 of the conference last year here: http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/002809.html and Day 2 here: http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/002813.html  and Day 3 here: http://jennifermarohasy.com/blog/2008/03/climate-change-conference-new-york-%e2%80%93-day-3-in-review/

But it wasn’t only about ‘climate change’, political analysis Graham Young spoke at the conference about the power of the internet, politics and lobbying and even mentioning this blog.  He suggested we were about “community”, “sharing information”, “understanding objections” and also “rehearsing arguments”. 

In the context of lobbying Mr Young made reference to the large environment groups’ Greenpeace and the World Wildlife Fund suggesting they are “successful modern political organisations”.  

Outspoken geologist and climate change sceptic, Bob Carter, also made mention of the same two organisations, explaining that Greenpeace with an annual budget of US$272 million  and WWF with a budget of US$487 million have more money to spend on lobbying than Australia’s major political parties during a federal election.

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There are photographs of some of the delegates and speakers at the AEF conference at the Community Web pages of this blog.
http://jennifermarohasy.com/blog/2008/10/aef-annual-conference/