The USA’s National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has a web page with recent data and maps, along with links to archived data of sea surface temperatures since 1982. The data is matched to grid cells of 1 degree Latitude and 1 degree longitude and from it I extracted the data applying to the GBR Marine Park and calculated the average across the park for each month.

The sea surface temperature (SST) clearly fluctuates throughout the year by about 5 degrees, typically with highest temperatures in January and lowest temperatures in August. It is also clear that The SST rises with the onset of El Nino events and falls with the onset of La Nina events.

Another method of examining temperature is via the anomaly, which is the variation from the long-term average for that month. The method is not ideal because occasional strong peaks or troughs can distort the average for a particular month and therefore the anomalies, but because global temperatures are usually expressed this way these monthly anomalies are shown in figure 2, along with the 12-month running average as above. The conventional period used for long-term averages is 30 years but because we only have 27 years of data the monthly averages are those for the entire interval.

More time is needed before reasons for the rise in the last few months of 2008 will become clear. At the present time (January 2009) the data might not be fully checked, the cloud cover over the reef may have changed, wind patterns may have altered, the discharge of heavy rainfall in rivers may be to blame and so on.
 
These graphs make it abundantly clear that the sea surface temperature along Australia’s Great Barrier Reef are not increasing at an alarming rate. The people who say otherwise have no evidence whatsoever to support their claims. These sea temperatures might rise in future but the historical evidence suggests that this will most likely be due to the natural forces of El Nino events.

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John McLean lives in Melbourne, Australia.

This note is republished from Mr McLean’s website with permission.   The information at the website, as republished here, was updated on January 5 (today) and is relevant to yesterday’s related blog ‘Global Warming Unlikely Reason for Slow Coral Growth’ http://jennifermarohasy.com/blog/2009/01/global-warming-unlikely-reason-for-slow-coral-growth/

The photograph of Mr McLean was taken at the Australian Environment Foundation Annual Conference in September 2008, in Canberra, Australia, by Jennifer Marohasy.

These reports are repeating claims in an Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS) media release made just last Friday to coincide with the publication of research findings in the journal Science [1].

The media release also claimed the research to be “the most comprehensive study to date on calcification rates of GBR corals”.

Having followed GBR issues for many years I was surprised to hear global warming associated with slow coral growth rates, indeed AIMS’s researchers Janice Lough and David Barnes have published detailed studies concluding that coral growth rates increase significantly with an increase in annual average sea surface temperature [2]. Furthermore growth rates actually decrease from north to south along the GBR as this corresponds with a cooling temperature gradient of 2-3 degrees C.

If there has been a slowing in growth rates of coral over the last nearly 20 years, as suggested by this new research, a most obvious question for me would be: Have GBR waters cooled?

This new research paper in Science presents evidence for a decline in coral growth rates since 1990, but no credible reason for the decline. While the study hints that the cause could be ocean acidification no direct evidence is provided to support this claim – not even a correlation. Indeed no data is presented to suggest the PH (a measure of acidity) of GBR waters has changed, and based on modelling of hypothetical changes in PH associated with increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide there is a timing problem – the decline in calcification rates should apparently have started years earlier.

Confronted with a lack of evidence in support of this hypothesis – that ocean acidification has caused the drop in growth rates – the researchers suggest in the paper “synergistic effects of several forms of environmental stress” and implicate higher temperatures. But no data is presented in the paper to contradict the well established relationship between increasing temperature and increasing growth rates – though various confusing statements are made and it is suggested that global warming has increased the incidence of heat stress in turn reducing growth rates – while at the same time the researchers acknowledge higher growth rates in northern, warmer, GBR waters.

Marine Biologist Walter Starck has perhaps aptly described the research as part of “the proliferation of subprime research presenting low value findings as policy grade evidence” and has suggested this has “science headed in the same direction as Wall Street.”

Interestingly, Queensland Premier, Anna Bligh, has decided the “massive decline in the reef’s growth” will require new laws.

None of this, however, gets us any closer to understanding why there has been an apparent dramatic decline in the growth rates of GBR corals over the last 20 years.

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Notes

[1] G. De’ath, J.M. Lough and K. Fabricius (2009) Declining Coral Calcification on the Great Barrier Reef. Science. Volumne 323, pages 116-119

[2] J.M. Lough and D. J. Barnes (1999) Environmental controls on growth of the massive coral Porites. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology. Volume 245, Issue 2, pages 225-243

Picture from Walter Starck’s collection.

There will be much discussion about how warm the year 2008 was, relative to other years in Australia, North America, and globally. 

While this news will no doubt grab mainstream media headlines it is unlikely there will be any discussion in the same media about how reliable the information actually is.

Meteorologist and blogger, Anthony Watts, has been surveying official weather stations in the US since May 2007 and his findings often make incredible reading.  Indeed, many official weather stations are very poorly located – including one beside a barbeque and others immediately above air conditioner exhausts.   

Mr Watts recently posted part 80 of “how not to measure temperature” showing an official US climate monitoring station at a funeral home in downtown Fort Scott, Kansas.  Like so many official weather stations in the US the environment surrounding this weather station, between a water fountain and a brick wall near the centre of the city, will probably not provide high quality data. 

It is unclear that the situation is much better in Australia – noone has done the type of audit being undertaken by Mr Watts in the US. 

Long time Australian Bureau of Meteorology critic, Warwick Hughes, recently suggested there has been a decline in the quality of rainfall data held by the Bureau with values missing from series for no apparent reason.   

In conclusion, while the average global citizen might assume that with all the kerfuffle about global warming the data would be beyond reproach, or at least improving, but his is not necessarily the case at least when it comes to the much quoted thermometer temperature data.   So, perhaps be prepared to be entertained by the likely barrage of commentary on temperatures over the next week/s, but also be a little skeptical. 

I have previously written that in not so many years time weather station data will be collected more for fun, a sense of history and for site-specific information, than for serious regional and global climate statistics.   In the future it will be data from satellites that is recognised as much more reliable for understanding regional and global temperature trends. 

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Photograph of the official weather station at a Funeral Home in Fort Scott, Kansas, from Anthony Watts.

The President of the JWA, Mr Keiichi Nakajima, said the Dutch vessel committing terror on the Antarctic high seas is running low on fuel and is apparently heading to either New Zealand or Australia to refuel.

“The request for port entry from the Sea Shepherd-Animal Planet crew on board the Dutch vessel must be rejected,” he said, “otherwise these countries will be complicit in any further attacks.”

“We know there are different views on whaling around the world. But the actions of the Sea Shepherd crew committing violence under the Dutch flag are no longer a whaling issue, but an issue of human life and safety at sea.”

“We can never accept people resorting to violence and intimidation to get across their point,” Mr Nakajima said.

“This ship proudly says it is from the Netherlands. They display the Rotterdam home port on the stern of the Steve Irwin. The Sea Shepherd-Animal Planet crew aboard the Dutch vessel has no qualms about using the Dutch registry to facilitate their eco-terrorism at sea.”

Last season, this Dutch vessel tried to disable the propellers of Japan’s research vessels. If they were successful, the vessel would become a “dead ship”, and would be in danger of overturning in rough seas.  The Dutch maritime and legal authorities must live up to their international obligations to maintain safety at sea.

“The Sea Shepherd terror acts are far beyond mere protest.”

“The International Whaling Commission has unanimously condemned the actions by the Sea Shepherd-Animal Planet crew and Australia and New Zealand put their names to the statement. To secure safety at sea for all, we urge both governments to reject Sea Shepherd’s request to berth in Australia or New Zealand,” Mr Nakajima said.

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This is a media release from the JWA .

Photograph via the Institute of Cetacean Research, Tokyo.

See blog post of December 27 on the activities of the Steve Irwin in the Southern Ocean here: http://jennifermarohasy.com/blog/2008/12/%e2%80%98steve-irwin%e2%80%99-attacks-japanese-whalers/

According to Joe Kishore writing at The World Socialist Website:

“Manufacturing in the US is collapsing, with a key index falling to its lowest level in 20 years on Friday. Other figures released yesterday show a downturn in production throughout the world.

“The Institute for Supply Management reported that its key index, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), fell to 32.4 in December from 36.2 in November.**

“Economists had expected a much slower decline to 35.4. It is the lowest reading of the index since June 1980. A figure below 50 indicates contraction in manufacturing…

“Meanwhile, the China Purchasing Managers Index rose slightly to 41.2, from a record low of 40.9 in November. However, the figure is still far below 50, signaling continued contraction in Chinese manufacturing as exports collapse.”

This must translate into fewer greenhouse gas emissions, but I haven’t seen any relevant calculations.   In particular, what will the global recession mean in terms of reduced carbon emissions?

Furthermore, if, as Freeman Dyson suggests, the path of righteousness is to live as frugally as possible, less “stuff” is good news.

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**December 2008 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm.

Click on the chart for a larger view.

“Environmentalism has replaced socialism as the leading secular religion. And the ethics of environmentalism are fundamentally sound. Scientists and economists can agree with Buddhist monks and Christian activists that ruthless destruction of natural habitats is evil and careful preservation of birds and butterflies is good. The worldwide community of environmentalists—most of whom are not scientists—holds the moral high ground, and is guiding human societies toward a hopeful future. Environmentalism, as a religion of hope and respect for nature, is here to stay. This is a religion that we can all share, whether or not we believe that global warming is harmful.

“Unfortunately, some members of the environmental movement have also adopted as an article of faith the belief that global warming is the greatest threat to the ecology of our planet. That is one reason why the arguments about global warming have become bitter and passionate. Much of the public has come to believe that anyone who is skeptical about the dangers of global warming is an enemy of the environment. The skeptics now have the difficult task of convincing the public that the opposite is true. Many of the skeptics are passionate environmentalists. They are horrified to see the obsession with global warming distracting public attention from what they see as more serious and more immediate dangers to the planet, including problems of nuclear weaponry, environmental degradation, and social injustice. Whether they turn out to be right or wrong, their arguments on these issues deserve to be heard.”

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From ‘The Question of Global Warming’ by Freeman Dyson, http://www.nybooks.com/contents/20080612

Freeman Dyson has spent most of his life as a professor of physics at the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton.

Photograph of the pond and waterfall was taken near Wentworth Falls in the Blue Mountain by Jennifer Marohasy in 2008.

In the US and Australia coal ash, also known as fly ash, is captured at power stations and generally stored as a sludge while in many parts of the developing world it escapes through the chimney and contributes significantly to air pollution.   Linfen, China, is considered one of the most polluted places in the world because of this coal industry emission (see the Blacksmith Institute 2006 Annual Report).

Captured coal ash can be used in pre-mixed concrete, for road stabilization and has agricultural applications.  But at least in Australia, its classification as a waste means its use is subject to all sorts of regulatory controls beyond those for claimed equivalent virgin materials meaning too much ends up in unnecessarily in overflowing sludge dams rather than being recycled.**

A challenge for our society is to better utilization industry by-products like coal ash and better prepare for cold weather including through ensuring appropriate infrastructure for the storage of substances like coal ash.  

In the meantime, I extend my sincere commiserations to the residents of Roane County in Tennessee.

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**Ash Utilisation – an Australian Perspective.  Craig Heidrich. 2003 International Ash Utlization Symposium, Center for Applied Energy Research, University of Kentucky. http://www.flyash.info/2003/03heid.pdf

Photograph courtesy of the Tennessee Valley Authority via Environmental News Service

Kingston Ash Slide Update web page,  http://www.tva.gov/