Comments on: Annual Australian Climate Statement 2008

By: Ian Mott

Ian Mott — Wed, 14 Jan 2009 01:35:52 +0000

It is interesting to do a trend band for the above BoM temp series, rather than the simple moving mean. The trend band looks only at the readings that make up the upper and lower boundaries of the records. And it shows two quite distinct temperature sequences.

The first period runs for 70 years from 1910 to 1980. There were 15 records (21.4% of sample)below -0.50C, 13 records (18.6% of sample) above 0.0C and 42 records (60.0%) within this range of variation. The lower trend line is an almost dead flat -0.73C while the upper line is a similar +0.24C, giving a band width of 0.97C. The variation between the first 35 years and the second 35 years is -0.039C for the lower line and +0.0037C for the upper line.

The second period overlaps the first and runs for 32 years from 1975 to 2007. There were 6 records (18.75%) below 0.0C, 6 records (18.75%) above +0.7C and 20 records (62.5%) within this range of variation. The lower trend line is at -0.175C while the upper line is at +0.792C, giving a band width of 0.967C. The duration of this second period is too short, and with too few records, for comparing early and late halves of the trend lines.

So where does that leave us? It leaves us with two level trend bands with a consistent width of 0.97C and a single, structural jump of +0.55C in those bands between 1975 and 1980.

Needless to say, this single change is not consistent with greenhouse theory which is reliant on incremental change in line with increases in atmospheric CO2. At very best, one can only say that, as far as continental Australia goes, “global” warming (whatever the cause) was an event that took place 30 years ago and we have all adjusted to it quite well.

By: Ian Mott

Ian Mott — Tue, 13 Jan 2009 12:28:04 +0000

Hold on SJT, if the southern hemisphere is mostly ocean, and oceans absorb about 96% of solar radiation anyway, then there is obviously a very limited potential for solar forcing in the southern hemisphere. OK, add some clouds with higher albedo than water and the raw potential for climate forcing is bit higher but it will depend on the exact mix of reflective and/or blanketing clouds.

I’m with WJP on sea level. Funny how there doesn’t seem to be a single climate alarmist in all of Raby Bay. You would think they would be pleased as punch for someone to take their “high risk” waterfront property off their hands at a 70% discount but they keep slammin the door in my face every time I make an offer.

By: Luke

Luke — Sat, 10 Jan 2009 01:00:31 +0000

Well WJP – brilliant though I am it’s just Wiki – see glaciers and ice sheets

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mean_sea_level

IPCC actual projections put it in the metre range though. Although ice sheet instability still an unknown factor. But it’s not all going to melt either.

By: WJP

WJP — Fri, 09 Jan 2009 12:56:00 +0000

I’m surprised, if I knew your Super Trustees I could maybe pick up a few percent on the way through,on the strength of the recommendation. Might sit it out for a bit myself though…..

By: Luke

Luke — Fri, 09 Jan 2009 12:06:40 +0000

Buy at will – everything could go and you’d still be OK :-)

By: WJP

WJP — Fri, 09 Jan 2009 10:16:33 +0000

So, Luke, when do we see The Great Gorean Melt of Antarctica? I’ve been eyeing off potential waterfront land 70m. above sea level, you see, and Big Al won’t get back to me with a little bit of, you know, inside information, so I defer to the community expert. When will it be best to clinch a few deals?

By: Luke

Luke — Fri, 09 Jan 2009 07:36:25 +0000

Yes I’ve Bob’s slick willy videos. I’m an attentive student to Bob’s information. I love all the denialist youtube stuff. But Vikings in Greenland and grapes in England isn’t the world! I think McIntyre – Loehle withstanding – leaves it as “don’t know really”. Maybe it was – maybe it wasn’t.

Moving on ….

“No warming in Australia !” pigs bum ….

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/reg/cli_chg/trendmaps.cgi?variable=tmean®ion=aus&season=0112&period=1970

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/reg/cli_chg/timeseries.cgi?variable=tmean®ion=aus&season=0112

Reality for Antarctica is that the interior is effectively walled off by the circumpolar vortex and so stays cold. Except for the Antarctic Peninsula outside this zone which is warming quickly (denialists will say volcanoes for which there is zero evidence).

By: bill-tb

bill-tb — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 18:36:35 +0000

“today’s temperatures do not exceed those of the Medieval Warm Period(950-1100 AD).” and the quality reference(s) for that is ? just asking ….

Well Luke, for starters the Vikings were on Greenland and farming in this timeframe, which would be impossible today.

A good reference is Prof Bob Carter’s videos and lectures some of which are on youtube.

By: Bob Tisdale

Bob Tisdale — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 09:31:52 +0000

SJT: It’s not only “as predicted by models;” it’s also as illustrated in the instrument temperature record. Do the models also show that the Northern Hemisphere cools faster than the Southern Hemisphere during periods of cooling? Polar amplification in the NH results in GCMs whether the source of additional heat is an increase in greenhouse gases, an increase in solar irradiance, or El Nino events.

By: janama

janama — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 07:24:43 +0000

As has been explained many times, as predicted by models, the SH is not warming as rapidly as the NH because there is more ocean area in the SH. The oceans tend to absorb more heat than land.

But SJT – there is some land in the southern hemisphere, like Australia, Sth America and Africa so it’s not like there’s NO land here yet there is NO warming.