So much for peer review. That ought to be the end of this particular cult. This shows that stupidity in the public sector is our gravest problem.

For example Heinrich events lead to a lot of ice being dumped on the Gulf stream periodically. And each time this is done that sends us backwards and stops us getting out of the glacial period. Particularly harmful is the ice that leads to Heinrich events off Hudson bay.

We could find a way to reduce aerosols. Not only human aerosols but those from volcanoes. We could find a way to reduce friction here and there in the ocean currents and particularly the gulf stream.

Ice moves like a slow-motion river. We could strategically nuke some parts of the land ice sheet to stop it moving forward. We might cover large areas of farmland with Ethylene tetrafluoroethylene. Sometimes it may be possible for someone to buy up ice-covered land cheaply, cover it with Ethylene tetrafluoroethylene, and reclaim this land for agriculture. Certainly the ice-damaged land would be cheaper so thats an economic opportunity.

We don’t want to be getting rid of sea ice. Because sea ice is a great insulator. Heinrich events happen, for example, due to heat buildup because of ices insulative capacity. But there is an exception where the ocean currents are concerned. We want to pre-empt ice getting near to anywhere that they may obstruct the oceans currents.

How? What do we have to do?

As tragic as they are and will be for puny humans they are the norm. They require no predictive capacity. The idea that we might avoid them is where the speculative thought comes in.

The last glacial period apparently began in this slow fashion around 112000 years ago. That at least is what I’ve been able to glean. But it didn’t really get locked in until much later. Perhaps from memory about 83000 years ago. The geneticists tell us that by 70 000 years ago most of the human race had been slaughtered.

I say this at the risk of getting our environmentalists excessively excited at the prospect of a renewed slaughter.

We were in full-blown glacial conditions at 70 000 years ago. And it oscillated up and down from there. Research needs to look at physical obstructions to the gulf stream to see how this nastiness gets locked in.

My understanding is that things were not too much different at 70,000 years ago, as compared to the ice maximum of 18000 years ago.

We can stop this disaster if we try.

The DAULTON MINIMUM is the only possibility at this time.Beyond that is sheer speculation.

They cannot predict cycle 26 as far as I know. I said “during cycle 26″ for entirely other reasons. Air temperature correlates with the prior cycle even better than with the current one for very good reasons.

Don’t ask me for the Sami Solanki link that proves this because all the good stuff seems to go AWOL on the net.

As to cycle 25 it appears that a consensus has developed due to a surface conveyer on the sun. This surface conveyer has a big leadtime and so it wasn’t 25 that had the doubt factor about it. But the predictions of 24 can sound like omens. They can sound like omens much to the delight of science-frauds and failed analysts like Quiggin., who calls all people who look for patterns “cycle-cranks”

Thats where the disparity is here. With 24 they had to go on prior patterns and rules of thumb. The whole thing is done on rules of thumb at the moment but this is a valid thing.

But the reason that they are so sure of the disaster of cycle 25 is that they bore witness to the surface conveyer. Whereas their speculations of cycle 24 were far more indirect.

I say that the 2030’s will be disastrously cold because thats the only decade I’d wager my entire superannuation on.

But being less of a pussy about it, and waging a good bet, I would suggest to you that the cooling will start pretty much right away. With only one or two up years all the way down to the 2030’s.

Its a weakass thing to say that the cooling WILL!!!! start pretty much right away. Because as we all know its already started.

You might get some mild uptick after Forbush events, after the next solar maximum, or during the period after the gulf stream has been in a strong phase. But I would see a sort of situation of 8 years of cooling against 3 years of feeble warming and a sort of continual oscillation down clear through the 2030’s.

A “LITTLE” ICE AGE YES.

Thats what the science says. There is simply no getting around that. But so far I do believe that we ought to be able to avoid the full-blown version if at first we can defeat socialism in science.

Each new little ice age has a more than 50% chance of being more severe than the last. Thats just a fact.

But I surmise that the glacial period only gets locked in when the ice interferes witht the ocean currents. So we can avoid this side of it hopefully but only so long as we are a free and viable civilisation. You leave it up to nature and nature will cock it up every time.

But yes we are on the cusp of a so-called “little ice age”.

No question about that at all.

Things change if you only go on the scientific evidence. It changes everything. The prattling of puny humans becomes meaningless. The leftists have their mantras and its the commie version of wishing upon a star.

THE LEFTISTS THINK IN THEIR HEARTS THAT IF A MILLION OF THEM CAN LIE A MILLION TIMES IT WILL ALTER REALITY.

But it won’t.

So yes if we are only going on scientific evidence then we have a “little-ice-age” on our hands.

The decade I can be absolutely sure of is the 2030’s. But I speculate that the cooling will move apace pretty much from here on in.

They’re called welchers here; no credit is extended to them.

Leftwingers never pay up on bets. But if you could legally lock it in, you could bet your last dollar on the fact that the 2030’s will be substantially colder than the 90’s. This won’t be a line-ball call and even Goddard won’t be able to finesse the data away.

This will be a serious disaster. ”

So, are you making a prediction of an ice age?