Ender – That is not the case at all. The best marketed solution wins not always the best technical solution. If that was the case I would be using an OS/2 or Linux computer now not a Windows XP one.

But Ender, I said the best solution wins. I did not say the best technical solution wins. The market will generally ensure that the best ECONOMIC solution wins in which the underlying technology is only one of the factors. It’s a matter of price vs. function.

When dealing with “media” platforms, and computers are in essence just another “media” platform, ubiquity is a key consideration including the ubiquity of the related “media”.

In the case of betamax vs. VHS, while betamax was arguably a “better” technology at the time, the relative performance of VHS was close enough that it won out on an overall economic basis. Why? Because Matsushita broadly licensed the technology for manufacture, the machines were then cheaper to procure, the media availability for VHS then exceeded that for Betamax and VHS eventually conquered the market.

The picture was much the same for personal computers. Interestingly enough, I was personally caught right in the middle of market battle back in the 1990’s between the Mac and Windows. I worked for a large technology organization with about 50,000 personal computers with a mix between Mac and DOS. As a technology organization, most of the employees clearly recognized the technological advantage of the Mac OS vs. Windows and by the mid 1990’s about 2/3 of the corporation had moved to that platform. However, it was not without problems. The hardware was notably more expensive, there was a painful wait for a suitable portable version of the platform and there was a lack of suitable corporate applications at the time most notably e-mail! Then Microsoft came out with Windows 95, which closed the gap significantly with the Mac OS and because of the other factors the corporation made a decision to move 100% to the Windows platform. Now if Apple had allowed its OS to be run on platforms produced by other manufacturers in the early 1990’s, the market would likely have turned out much differently. In the case of Linux, although it may seem like a superior technical solution to the purist, is it a better ECONOMIC solution to the masses? Apparently not – at least at the current point in time otherwise we would see a mass migration wouldn’t we? As is the case with all “Media” technologies, standardization and media “lock-in” is a big factor. Will that change? My bet is that eventually the average consumer won’t even know or care what OS they use. Applications will move to a network hosted basis and then it’s only the tech. support people that will care about the OS.

The case of personal transportion is markedly different because there is no “media lock-in”. As long as a car can operate on a road, paved or otherwise, all manner of solutions are possible. The one that will dominate, as the ICE has for a century, is the one that provides the best ECONOMIC solution. While we may all agree that hybrids have some nifty technology, we are they not even close to being a major force in the marketplace? Because they don’t yet make economic sense. The extra capital cost in most cases is not justified by the money saved on fuel over the life of the car. It’s as simple as that. New personal mobility solutions will catch on when the cost vs. function performance reaches a competitive level. That is the barrier to entry – not some automobile/oil company conspiracy!!

The again, there’s the Ford Edsel.

Nobody – this is just how the system works. How is your betamax video recorder? How is your OS/2 computer? There was no conspiracy to defeat the betamax it was just VHS had better corporate backing and it won despite being technically inferior.

There is no conspiracy here and I am not suggesting that there is. It is simply large corporations doing what they do – struggle to preserve their existance.

Mark – “No need to worry. There’s this wonderful thing that will ensure the best solution wins. It’s called the free market!”

That is not the case at all. The best marketed solution wins not always the best technical solution. If that was the case I would be using an OS/2 or Linux computer now not a Windows XP one.

No need to worry. There’s this wonderful thing that will ensure the best solution wins. It’s called the free market!

1. It preserves the current user experience of IC cars making it less frighening for people that find change difficult. Filling a hydrogen car from a hydrogen filling station can be made exactly the same as the current experience and car companies are very eager not to disturb the current UE so as not to scare off car buyers. The idea is if people have to start thinking to buy battery electric cars they also might think about buying a car from a different manufacturer instead of Ford or Holden.

2. Oil companies can easily switch from gasoline to hydrogen preserving the brands that they have spent billions on. While they can move into electricity there are already well established companies in this space with vastly more corporate knowledge that the oil companies cannot hope to compete with. With hydrogen everyone is at the beginning so oil companies hope that they can grow it fast enough and build up the corporate knowledge faster so they can compete.

3. Battery electric cars are far too reliable and simple ever to be supported. Electronic controllers and batteries are far outside the current main knowledge base of car companies and the support network that has grown up with them. BEVs only have one moving part, the motor, with the rest all solid state and from even the limited operational experience with current electric vehicles has shown them to operate with almost 100% reliability for many many years with almost no maintenance. Fuel cells and their high pressure tanks, on the other hand, have hundreds of valves and pumps which potentially will need far more maintenance supporting then current network of repairers far better.

In most things in this corporate world the best technology does not always make it. Though I hate the thought hydrogen fuel cell cars have the backing of both the car companies and the large oil companies and therefore will probably be the solution that is chosen by them for us despite all the shortcomings.

Unless we actually stand up and demand the more efficient answer, that of battery electric cars and plug in hybrids, the solution will be chosen for us by vested interests. I don’t want to see this happen so wherever you can choose solid state electric cars (BEVs) rather than chemical battery electric cars(FCVs).