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Regards,

Paul Biggs

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Paul’s nearly 500 posts at this blog are archived here: http://jennifermarohasy.com/blog/author/paul/   

Ionospheric Prediction Service (IPS): CYCLE 24 PREDICTION MOVED AWAY BY 6 MONTHS

Hat tip to Anthony Watts

The Abstract states:

The annually-laminated (i.e., varved) sediment record from the Lower Mystic Lake (near Boston, MA), contains a series of anomalous graded beds deposited by strong flooding events that have affected the basin over the last millennium. From the historic portion of the record, 10 out of 11 of the most prominent graded beds correspond with years in which category 2–3 hurricanes are known to have struck the Boston area. Thus, we conclude that the graded beds represent deposition related to intense hurricane precipitation combined with wind-driven vegetation disturbance that exposes fresh, loose sediment. The hurricane signal shows strong, centennial-scale variations in frequency with a period of increased activity between the 12th–16th centuries, and decreased activity during the 11th and 17th–19th centuries. These frequency changes are consistent with other paleoclimate indicators from the tropical North Atlantic, in particular, sea surface temperature variations.

The paper concludes:

The LML sedimentary record provides a well-controlled and annually-resolved record of category 2–3 hurricane activity in the Boston area over the last millennium. The hurricane signal shows centennial-scale variations in frequency with a period of increased activity between the 12th–16th centuries, and decreased activity during the 11th and 17th–19th centuries. We recognize that the LML record is a single point source record representative for the greater Boston area, and hurricanes that passed a few hundred km to the east or west may not have produced the very heavy rainfall amounts and vegetation disturbance in the lake watershed necessary to produce a strong signal within the LML sediments. Nevertheless, we also note that clear evidence of a secular change in hurricane frequency identified in the LML record is consistent with other lines of evidence that conditions for the development of hurricanes have changed on centennial timescales. Hence, it appears that hurricane activity was more frequent in the first half of the last millennium when tropical Atlantic SSTs were warmer and eastern equatorial Pacific SSTs were cooler than in subsequent centuries.

Also, a NOAA climate realist speaks out:

Excerpt: “I did not say if there is global warming, it would be man-made,” Mr. Goldenberg emphasized. “Not all scientists agree that the warming we’ve seen is necessarily anthropogenic. It is a blatant lie put forth in the media that makes it seem there is only a fringe of scientists who don’t buy into anthropogenic global warming.” According to Stanley Goldenberg, meteorologist with the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA, based in Miami, “Numerous hurricane meteorologists agree that the historical data has not produced any evidence of changes [due to climate change] in the number or intensity of hurricanes, particularly in the Atlantic Basin, and even globally. “There are some who have done studies that do claim a link, [but] virtually all those studies have been heavily rebutted by others in the hurricane community,” he noted. “In my opinion, the flaw in those studies is an improper utilization of historical databases. I have been a specialist in hurricane climate data for close to three decades, and others who know the databases well agree with what I am saying.” Mr. Goldenberg pointed to a number of confounding problems in such studies, including the time frame chosen, the techniques available now and in the past to measure hurricane activity, the ways in which such activity was recorded, and the availability of satellite data—or lack thereof. “The biggest fallacy is that people think that a hurricane feeds off a warm ocean, and if the ocean gets warmer, we will have more intense hurricanes,” he explained. “But there are other factors involved, such as vertical wind shear, which is the difference between the upper and lower layers of the atmosphere. You could also have drier air. These are far more critical factors than the ocean being warmer. “Everything else being equal, if you warm the ocean under a storm, you might get a stronger storm—but everything else is not equal,” said Mr. Goldenberg. “Warming may increase vertical shear and therefore inhibit storms. The ocean itself warming is such a little effect.” […] Mr. Goldenberg of NOAA added, “There are those who want to attribute any perceived increase in natural disasters to anthropomorphic global warming. I predict that if we have an active hurricane season, someone will attribute it to AGW. They’re not really looking at the science; they’re looking at the disaster.

Global Warming Not Linked To Increased Hurricane Activity

Excerpt: Despite being dismissed by a number of scientists as of little consequence to the present discussion of climate change, the issue of the sun’s activity – or apparent lack of it – has been the subject of considerable debate in recent months. Scientists who concern themselves with the fledgling subject of space weather (changes in the sun’s emissions) have been wondering where all the sunspots have gone, when they might come back and what effect this will have on climate…..

Another scientist who says he has identified a link between the sun’s activity and climate – in particular between rainfall in Australia and sunspots – is Robert Baker, an associate professor at the University of New England’s School of Human and Environmental Studies. Baker tells the AFR he has identified a strong correlation between sunspots, the sun’s magnetic activity and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). He says variations in the earth’s magnetic field account for about half of the variation in the SOI, and that changes in sunspot activity as an indicator of magnetic activity can be correlated with rainfall patterns in south-east Australia . The Bureau of Meteorology has rejected Baker’s reasoning and a paper by him was not accepted by the Australian Meterological Magazine. But Baker says his analysis has been accepted by the peer-reviewed journal Solar Terrestrial Physics for publication in December.

(Note: To economize words, throughout the rest of the post, I’ll use “Australian waters” in place of “oceans surrounding Australia” or the “combined Southwest South Pacific and Southeast South Indian Ocean data set.”)

First, to determine the area to evaluate, I downloaded data for two geographical areas from the NOAA NOMADS system. They’re identified by the red and blue boxes in Figure 1. The coordinates used are 10-45S, 105-165E for the red area and 0-55S, 95-175E for the blue.

Figure 1

Figure 2 illustrates the SST anomalies from January 1854 to June 2008 for the two ocean areas surrounding Australia. Both data sets have been smoothed with a 37-month filter. Picking the start date in the trough at 1905 and the end date at a peak in 2000 (There must be an alarmist side to me.), both data sets show rises in SST that are on the order of 1.0 to 1.2 deg C. The two signals are similar, with the smaller area having the greater variations. For the remainder of this post, I’ll use the data from the smaller area, the red curve.

Figure 2

Figure 3 shows the raw long-term data for the SST anomalies of Australian waters. Also illustrated is data that’s been smoothed with a 12-month running-average filter. Typical of many other oceanic data sets, there is an overall decline in SSTs from the late 1800s to 1910 and a rebound in SSTs until 1940. Then, though there are underlying oscillations, SSTs rise almost continuously from 1940 to present. El Nino events appear to stand out.

Note: The step change (temperature drop) at 1945 has been identified as an error in a recent Thompson et al letter to “Nature” with the title “A Large Discontinuity in the Mid-Twentieth Century in Observed Global-Mean Surface Temperature”.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v453/n7195/abs/nature06982.html

Figure 3

But there’s something that seems to be missing from the data in later years. Refer to Figure 4, which illustrates short-term (January 1978 to June 2008) SST anomalies for Australian waters. The delayed responses to the 82/83, the 86/87/88, and the 97/98 El Nino events are again easy to find with the sudden rises in SST, but…

Where are the effects of the La Ninas?

The 97/98 El Nino is so much larger than the subsequent multiyear La Nina that it gives the impression that it supplied enough heat to create a step change in the SSTs of Australian waters and that the heat then dissipated over a ten year period. But that impression is only partly correct. The effects of the La Ninas are there, but they are overwhelmed by the magnitudes of those major El Ninos.

Figure 4

In Figure 5, I’ve added NINO3.4 SST anomaly data to the graph of short-term SST anomalies for Australian waters. A scaling factor of 0.3 has been applied to the NINO3.4 data. I’ve also noted the timing of the two major volcanic eruptions in case someone feels they’re relevant.

The time lags between an ENSO event and the response of SST for Australian waters appear to be on the order of a few months to a year. And with the scaling factor used (0.3), the magnitude of the NINO3.4 SSTs during the 82/83, the 86/87/88, and the 97/98 events appear to generate similarly sized reactions in the SSTs of Australian waters.

Then, starting at 1998, it would appear that the entire drop in NINO3.4 SST should result in a similarly sized response in SST, but the response of the Australian waters falls far short. The logic behind the “Would-Should” statement is wrong.

In simple terms, ENSO events supply heat to sea surfaces when the NINO3.4 SST anomalies are greater than zero and remove heat when they’re less than zero. So the reference point for the NINO3.4 data is zero when comparing it to other anomaly data. Looking at the data again and using zero as the reference for the multiyear La Nina episode after the 97/98 El Nino, the reaction by the SSTs of Australian waters is in the proper scale. There are minor differences in the cause and effect and in the time lags in prior ENSO events, but all in all, there are no surprises.

Figure 5

The effects of ENSO events on SST trends are obvious once we’re reminded of them. Keep in mind that it is not only the frequency of El Nino and La Nina events but also the magnitude of those events that must be considered during discussions of their impacts on global or local climate.

In “The Evolution of ENSO and Global Atmospheric Temperatures”, Trenberth et al identify the linear trend in global temperatures that result from ENSO events: “For 1950-98, ENSO linearly accounts for 0.06 deg C of global warming.” http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/papers/jgr2001b/jgr2.html

The effects of ENSO events appear much greater on regional levels.

Closing Note: The additional problems with measuring and calculating global mean sea surface temperature are discussed at length in numerous posts at ClimateAudit and in the papers that are the subjects of or the references used for those posts. For further information, refer to the following ClimateAudit posts:
http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3114
http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1272

SOURCE

Sea Surface Temperature Data is Smith and Reynolds Extended Reconstructed SST (ERSST.v2) available through the NOAA National Operational Model Archive & Distribution System (NOMADS).
http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/#climatencdc

Bob Tisdale

A research team led by Ohio University geologist Gregory Springer examined the trace metal strontium and carbon and oxygen isotopes in the stalagmite, which preserved climate conditions averaged over periods as brief as a few years. The scientists found evidence of at least seven major drought periods during the Holocene era, according to an article published online in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

“This really nails down the idea of solar influence on continental drought,” said Springer, an assistant professor of geological sciences.

Geologist Gerald Bond suggested that every 1,500 years, weak solar activity caused by fluctuations in the sun’s magnetic fields cools the North Atlantic Ocean and creates more icebergs and ice rafting, or the movement of sediment to ocean floors. Other scientists have sought more evidence of these so-called “Bond events” and have studied their possible impact on droughts and precipitation. But studies to date have been hampered by incomplete, less detailed records, Springer said.

The stalagmites from the Buckeye Creek Cave provide an excellent record of climate cycles, he said, because West Virginia is affected by the jet streams and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific Ocean.

Other studies have gleaned climate cycle data from lakes, but fish and other critters tend to churn the sediment, muddying the geological record there, said study co-author Harold Rowe, an assistant professor of geological sciences at the University of Texas at Arlington.

“(The caves) haven’t been disturbed by anything. We can see what happened on the scale of a few decades. In lakes of the Appalachian region, you’re looking more at the scale of a millennium,” Rowe said.

Strontium occurs naturally in the soil, and rain washes the element through the limestone. During dry periods, it is concentrated in stalagmites, making them good markers of drought, Rowe explained. Carbon isotopes also record drought, Springer added, because drier soils slow biological activity. This causes the soil to “breathe less, changing the mix of light and heavy carbon atoms in it,” he said.

In the recent study, the scientists cut and polished the stalagmite, examined the growth layers and then used a drill to take 200 samples along the growth axis. They weighed and analyzed the metals and isotopes to determine their concentrations over time.

The data are consistent with the Bond events, which showed the connection between weak solar activity and ice rafting, the researchers said. But the study also confirmed that this climate cycle triggers droughts, including some that were particularly pronounced during the mid-Holocene period, about 6,300 to 4,200 years ago. These droughts lasted for decades or even entire centuries.

Though modern records show that a cooling North Atlantic Ocean actually increases moisture and precipitation, the historic climate events were different, Springer said. In the past, the tropical regions of the Atlantic Ocean also grew colder, creating a drier climate and prompting the series of droughts, he explained.

Unfortunately, at this point the media release replaces data with computer modelled global warming alarmism:

The climate record suggests that North America could face a major drought event again in 500 to 1,000 years, though Springer said that manmade global warming could offset the cycle.

“Global warming will leave things like this in the dust. The natural oscillations here are nothing like what we would expect to see with global warming,” he said.

Though some climate and drought records exist for the Western and Midwest areas of North America, the eastern Appalachian region hasn’t been studied much to date, Rowe said. The research team plans to examine additional stalagmite records from West Virginia and Tennessee to paint a better picture of North American climate cycles.

Collaborators on the study also included Lawrence Edwards, Ben Hardt and Hai Cheng of the University of Minnesota.

Ohio University Research News – ATHENS, Ohio (Aug. 19, 2008): New climate record shows century-long droughts in eastern North America

Weak sun created cool oceans, lowered rainfall seven times in 7,000 years

Geophysical Research Letters

Solar Forcing of Holocene Droughts in a Stalagmite Record from West Virginia in East- Central North America

Abstract:

Elevated Sr/Ca ratios and δ13C values in Holocene-age stalagmite BCC-002 from eastcentral North America record six centennial-scale droughts during the last five North Atlantic Ocean ice-rafted debris (IRD) episodes, previously ascribed to solar irradiance minima. Spectral and cross-spectral analyses of the multi-decadal resolution Sr/Ca and δ13C time series yield coherent ~200 and ~500 years periodicities. The former is consistent with the de Vries solar irradiance cycle. Cross-spectral analysis of the Sr/Ca and IRD time series yields coherent periodicities of 715- and 455-years, which are harmonics of the 1,450±500 year IRD periodicity. These coherencies corroborate strong visual correlations and provide convincing evidence for solar forcing of east-central North American droughts and strengthen the case for solar modulation of mid-continent climates. Moisture transport across North America may have lessened during droughts because of weakened north-south temperature and pressure gradients caused by cooling of the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. across the region throughout much of the year. As such, hydroclimates of eastern NA are dually sensitive to the climate state of the North AO and mid-latitude transcontinental teleconnections linking the Pacific and North Atlantic oceans [McCabe et al., 2004; Seager, 2007]. Herein, we demonstrate that this dual dependency allowed an east-central NA paleoclimate archive (speleothem) to directly record solar-forcing of Mid- to Late Holocene droughts that were caused by weakening of moisture transport over east-central NA in response to cooling of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.

Conclusions:

Seven significant Mid- to Late Holocene droughts are recorded in West Virginia stalagmite BCC-002 as elevated Sr/Ca ratios and δ13C values. Six droughts correlate with cooling of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans as part of the North Atlantic Ocean ice-rafted debris cycle, which has been linked to the solar irradiance cycle. The Sr/Ca and δ13C time series display periodicities of ~200 and ~500 years and are coherent in those frequency bands. The ~200-year periodicity is consistent with the de Vries (Suess) solar irradiance cycle. We interpret the ~500- year periodicity to be a harmonic of the IRD oscillations. Visually, the Sr/Ca and IRD time series show strong correlations and cross-spectral analysis of the Sr/Ca and IRD time series yields statistically significant coherencies at periodicities of 455 and 715 years. These latter values are very similar to the second (725-years) and third (480-years) harmonics of the 1450±500-years IRD periodicity [Bond et al., 2001]. Collectively, these findings and a 1,200-year periodicity in the Sr/Ca time series, demonstrates solar forcing of droughts in east-central North America on multiple time scales. Droughts typically occur during solar minima when SST in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans are comparatively cool. These SST anomalies cause migration of the jet stream away from east-central NA, yielding decreased meridional moisture transport and reduced convergence over east-central NA. Our findings appear to corroborate works indicating that millennial-scale solar-forcing is responsible for droughts and ecosystem changes in central and eastern North America [Viau et al., 2002; Willard et al., 2005; Dennison et al., 2007], but our high-resolution time series provide much stronger evidence in favor of solar-forcing of North American drought by yielding unambiguous spectral analysis results.

There has been the most extraordinary series of postings at Climate Audit over the last week. As is usual at CA, there is a heavy mathematics burden for the casual reader, which, with a bit of research I think I can now just about follow. The story is a remarkable indictment of the corruption and cyncism that is rife among climate scientists, and I’m going to try to tell it in layman’s language so that the average blog reader can understand it. As far as I know it’s the first time the whole story has been set out in a single posting. It’s a long tale – and the longest posting I think I’ve ever written and piecing it together from the individual CA postings has been a long, hard but fascinating struggle. You may want to get a long drink before starting, and those who suffer from heart disorders may wish to take their beta blockers first.

Read the entire blog post entitled: ‘Caspar and the Jesus paper’

In the July edition, Gabriel A. Vecchi and Thomas R. Knutson have a paper entitled: ‘On Estimates of Historical North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity’

The Abstract states:

In this study, an estimate of the expected number of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) that were missed by the observing system in the presatellite era (between 1878 and 1965) is developed. The significance of trends in both number and duration since 1878 is assessed and these results are related to estimated changes in sea surface temperature (SST) over the “main development region” (“MDR”). The sensitivity of the estimate of missed TCs to underlying assumptions is examined. According to the base case adjustment used in this study, the annual number of TCs has exhibited multidecadal variability that has strongly covaried with multidecadal variations in MDR SST, as has been noted previously. However, the linear trend in TC counts (1878–2006) is notably smaller than the linear trend in MDR SST, when both time series are normalized to have the same variance in their 5-yr running mean series. Using the base case adjustment for missed TCs leads to an 1878–2006 trend in the number of TCs that is weakly positive, though not statistically significant, with p 0.2. The estimated trend for 1900–2006 is highly significant (+4.2 storms century−1) according to the results of this study. The 1900–2006 trend is strongly influenced by a minimum in 1910–30, perhaps artificially enhancing significance, whereas the 1878–2006 trend depends critically on high values in the late 1800s, where uncertainties are larger than during the 1900s. The trend in average TC duration (1878–2006) is negative and highly significant. Thus, the evidence for a significant increase in Atlantic storm activity over the most recent 125 yr is mixed, even though MDR SST has warmed significantly. The decreasing duration result is unexpected and merits additional exploration; duration statistics are more uncertain than those of storm counts. As TC formation, development, and track depend on a number of environmental factors, of which regional SST is only one, much work remains to be done to clarify the relationship between anthropogenic climate warming, the large-scale tropical environment, and Atlantic TC activity.

The paper concludes:

Overall, our findings suggest that it is possible that Atlantic TC counts may have significantly increased since the late nineteenth century, although the evidence is decidedly mixed, with some other activity measures showing either no change or a decrease with time. Total storms per year and U.S. landfalling activity show no increasing trend, and average TC duration shows a significant decrease over time. Further, attribution of an increase in tropical storm counts to any particular mechanism (including increasing greenhouse gasses or natural decadal variations) would require further dynamical analysis to complement any observational results. It is noteworthy that in our adjusted record of TCs the sensitivity of basin-wide storm counts to local SST is smaller for the longest time scales (e.g., trend since 1878) than for the pronounced multidecadal variability, although the current observational “best estimate” would be that this sensitivity is positive. Additional study is needed to reconcile these findings with climate simulations of past and future Atlantic storm activity. Future work should also focus on including more ship-track information where possible and examining assumptions about landfall detection in earlier years, and historical tropical cyclone database reconstructions should be extended to include other basins.

See also Discovery Channel News: Warming Won’t Drive More Hurricanes, Study Says

In the August edition of the Journal of Climate, Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray have a paper entitled: ‘Multidecadal Variability in North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity’

The Abstract states:

Recent increases in Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity since 1995 and the associated destructive U.S. landfall events in 2004 and 2005 have generated considerable interest into why there has been such a sharp upturn. Natural variability, human-induced global warming, or a combination of both factors, have been suggested. Several previous studies have discussed observed multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic over 25–40-yr time scales. This study, using data from 1878 to the present, creates a metric based on far North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies and basinwide North Atlantic sea level pressure anomalies that shows remarkable agreement with observed multidecadal variability in both Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity and in U.S. landfall frequency.

The paper concludes:

This paper expounds upon previous research by highlighting Atlantic basin multidecadal variability in both large-scale atmospheric–oceanic fields as well as Atlantic basin TC (tropical cyclone) activity. Using an index of basinwide SLP (sea level pressure) and far North Atlantic SSTs (sea surface temperatures), positive and negative periods for the AMO (Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation) can be clearly delineated. When the AMO is in its positive phase, TC activity in the Atlantic basin is heightened, especially for MH (major hurricane) activity. Landfalling hurricanes along the U.S. coastline also become more frequent, with the most dramatic increases in a positive AMO phase being seen for the U.S. East Coast and the Florida Peninsula. Additional research involving potential physical drivers of the AMO should be conducted.

The committee had been evenly split, with three Labour MPs supporting the Government line while three Tory and Lib Dem MPs opposed it, arguing that the move amounted to retrospective taxation. Mr Yeo broke the deadlock by siding with the Labour MPs.

He is paid £40,000 a year as non-executive chairman of Eco City Vehicles Plc, a company which plans to market a hybrid car which would qualify for low rates of VED under the new tax regime, due to its low carbon emissions.

Telegraph.co.uk: Tory MP Tim Yeo in conflict-of-interest row over car tax report