One of those climate detective stories taking some intriguing twists and turns is the rainfall decline in Western Australia which has been the impetus for the Indian Ocean Climate Initiative (IOCI).  Their web site explains:
“In southwest WA, a drying trend has been observed …  The rainfall decline has been most apparent in late autumn and early winter, with a major drop in rainfall totals occurring in the 1970s, and possibly another more recently in the 1990s.  Averaged across southwest WA, a step decrease in total annual rainfall of almost 10% was seen in the mid-1970s, though individual locations would have experienced a greater decrease.”

Antarctica, in particular both stratospheric ozone decline and tropospheric greenhouse forcing over Antarctica impacting a positively trending southern annular mode (SAM) with the strengthening circumpolar vortex, have been the focus of explanations for the rainfall decline (see for example Thompson and Solomon, 2002, in “Interpretation of recent southern hemisphere climate change”).

For a description of the SAM – http://www.atmos.colostate.edu/ao/introduction.html

Shindell and Schmidt (2004) claim that both Antarctic ozone depletion and increasing greenhouses gases have contributed to these trends.  And with an interactive climate model including the stratosphere and both composition changes reproduces the vertical structure and seasonality of observed trends.

Arblaster and Meehl (2006) asserted that a recovery in the ozone hole would be matched by inexorable increase in greenhouse gases:

“Although stratospheric ozone losses are expected to stabilize and eventually recover to preindustrial levels over the course of the twenty-first century, these results show that increasing greenhouse gases will continue to intensify the polar vortex throughout the twenty-first century, but that radiative forcing will cause widespread temperature increases over the entire Southern Hemisphere.”

Fundamentally, the SAM is an expression of the meridional pressure gradient between the sub-Antarctic and middle latitudes. The mode has been increasing towards its positive polarity (in the annual, summer, and autumn means) since the late 1960s, leading to lower (higher) surface pressures over Antarctica (southern mid-latitudes) (Polar Meteorology Group). Although Arblaster et al (2010) in a modelling exercise now suggest that ozone hole recovery will indeed lead to SAM reversing trends in coming “decades”.

In an apparent vindication of the unusual nature of the SWWA rainfall decline, van Ommen reported in Nature Geoscience (2010) a correlation between Law Dome snowfall and SW WA rainfall. (Law Dome – 66°44′S 112°50′E, a large ice dome which rises to 1,395 m directly south of Cape Poinsett, Antarctica) And that the SW WA drought sequence was unusual as being the largest anomaly in the last 750  years and outside the field of variability.

So back in 2006, the trail seemed to be closing on anthropogenic climate change in the Antarctic and associated changes in southern hemisphere circulation (SAM) as being responsible for the decline in SW WA winter rainfall.

Cai and Cowan (2006) in GRL stated:

“It is not clear why the reduction occurs in the winter months, when the observed SAM trend is weak, but not in the summer months, when the observed SAM trend is strongest. It is also not clear to what extent the reduction is attributable to anthropogenic forcing and is congruent with the SAM. Using IPCC AR4 20th century model experiments and available observations, we show that in winter the mid-latitude center-of-action of the SAM is closest to SWWA latitudes, compared to other seasons. As a result, there is a statistically significant relationship between the SAM and SWWA rainfall in winter, but not in other seasons. The observed winter SAM trend, though not statistically significant, accounts for two thirds of the observed winter rainfall reduction.”

At a 2007 conference Cowan reported ” Interannual / multidecadal variability linked to the SAM” and “about ½ of rainfall decline attributable to anthropogenic  forcings”.

However, in 2007, Meneghini et al reported:

“The AOIR (Antarctic Oscillation Index regional version) accounts for more of the winter rainfall variability in southwest Western Australia, southern South Australia, western and southern Victoria, and western Tasmania than the Southern Oscillation Index. Overall, our results suggest that changes in the SAM may be partly responsible for the current decline in winter rainfall in southern South Australia, Victoria, and Tasmania, but not the long-term decline in southwest Western Australian winter rainfall”.

Perhaps the downfall of what seemed to be a good story on SAM came from Feng et al (2010) in Journal of Climate.  There landmark paper on a new index, the southwest Australian circulation, begins:

 ”Previous studies have raised the possibility that the recent decline in winter rainfall over southwest Western Australia (SWWA) is related to the concurrent upward trend in the southern annular mode (SAM). On the basis of an analysis of 60-yr (1948–2007) reanalysis and observed data, the authors suggest that the apparent inverse relationship between the SAM and SWWA winter rainfall (SWR) is caused by a single extreme year—1964. It is shown that both the negative and positive phases of the SAM have little impact on SWR in the case that data for 1964 are excluded from the analysis. In addition, for periods prior to and after 1964 in the case that data for 1964 are excluded, the apparent relationship between the SAM and SWR becomes insignificant, and the circulation anomalies with respect to SWR appear to be an SAM-like pattern for which the anomalies at high latitudes are not significant. The result indicates that the SAM does not significantly influence the winter rainfall over SWWA. Instead, the variation of SWR would be more closely linked to the variability in regional circulations…

Feng et al (2010) continue:

“It is found that the climate of southwest Australia bears a strong seasonality in the annual cycle and exhibits a monsoon-like atmospheric circulation, which is called the southwest Australian circulation (SWAC) because of its several distinct features characterizing a monsoonal circulation: the seasonal reversal of winds, alternate wet and dry seasons, and an evident land–sea thermal contrast. The seasonal march of the SWAC in extended winter (May–October) is demonstrated by pentad data. An index based on the dynamics’ normalized seasonality was introduced to describe the behavior and variation of the winter SWAC. It is found that the winter rainfall over SWWA has a significant positive correlation with the SWAC index in both early (May–July) and late (August–October) winter. In weaker winter SWAC years, there is an anticyclonic anomaly over the southern Indian Ocean resulting in weaker westerlies and northerlies, which are not favorable for more rainfall over SWWA, and the opposite combination is true in the stronger winter SWAC years. The SWAC explains not only a large portion of the interannual variability of SWWA rainfall in both early and late winter but also the long-term drying trend over SWWA in early winter.

The well-coupled SWAC–SWWA rainfall relationship seems to be largely independent of the well-known effects of large-scale atmospheric circulations such as the southern annular mode (SAM), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), and ENSO Modoki (EM). The result offers qualified support for the argument that the monsoon-like circulation may contribute to the rainfall decline in early winter over SWWA. The external forcing of the SWAC is also explored in this study”.

And what more do we know about what might become of the SWAC?

IPCC climate change simulations diagnose that the Hadley circulation will weaken and expand polewards as a result of climate change. Associated with this is an expansion of the subtropical dry zone. Additional work by Ummenhofer (2008) has shown changes in the Indian Ocean SST may provide another forcing to SWAC.

The potential for the SWAC to become a seasonal climate forecasting tool for SW WA remains an exciting possibility.

********************

Graphic 

http://www.ioci.org.au/pdf/Fact%20Sheet%204.pdf

References

http://www.lasg.ac.cn/staff/ljp/data-NAM-SAM-NAO/SAM(AAO).htm  SAM index
http://polarmet.osu.edu/acd/sam/sam_recon.html Polar Meteorology Group reconstructions
http://www.ioci.org.au/index.php?menu_id=18  IOCI
http://www.ioci.org.au/pdf/Fact%20Sheet%204.pdf IOCI on rainfall decline
http://www.atmos.colostate.edu/ao/ThompsonPapers/ThompsonSolomon_Science.pdf
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2004…/2004GL020724.shtml Shindell and Smith
http://www.cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/jma/arblaster_meehl_sam.pdf
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/publications/arblaster_future_sam_2011.pdf
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v3/n4/full/ngeo761.html#a1 van Ommen
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2006…/2006GL028037.shtml Cai and Cowan 2006
http://www.clw.csiro.au/conferences/GICC/cowan.pdf Cowan 2007
http://www.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au/~ihs/publication_pdfs/Meneghini%2BSimmonds%2BSmith_2007_IJC_27_109-121.pdf Meneghini et al
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010JCLI3667.1 Feng on SAM in SWWA 2010
http://www.cmis.csiro.au/Yun.Li/Papers/reprints/2010_JCLI_SWWA%20Monsoon_Feng_Li_Li.pdf Feng 2010 on the SWAC
http://www.csiro.au/news/New-climate-index-solves-south-west-WA-rainfall-riddle.html CSIRO on SWAC
http://web.maths.unsw.edu.au/~ccumm/Ummenhofer.etal_2008_SWWA.pdf

Franks’ proposition is well based on physical processes and observed data. Of course there have been other supporters of the same position from various fields:

Peter Helman suggests cycles of beach erosion are influenced by IPO cycles, “The impact of sea level rise during the last few decades has not been expressed due to low storm energy (Callaghan and Helman 2008). Climate variability determines when and how sea level change will occur on the coast. Sea level oscillates with decadal and annual climate variability. Over decades, sea level changes are related to oscillation phases of IPO (Figure 3). It has been shown that during phases of negative IPO La Ninã events are more frequent (Verdon 2007), sea level rises at a faster rate than the long term trend (Goring and Bell 2001) and is higher than the long term trend with high storm energy, are periods of coastal erosion (Helman 2007). The longest period of negative IPO recorded was from the late 1850’s to the early 1890’s and the most recent was from the late 1940’s to the late 1970’s. Both of these periods resulted in major changes and erosion of the coastline (Helman 2007).

Francis Chiew (2003) “The relationship between hydroclimate and El Niño/Southern Oscillation has been used in forecasting rainfall and streamflow. A lag correlation analysis using rainfall and streamflow data from 284 Australian catchments that show that the ENSO-hydroclimate relationship is a lot stronger when the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) phase is negative compared to when it is positive. The remarkable contrast in the hydroclimate-ENSO relationship between the two IPO phases suggests that the IPO should be considered in developing forecast models, particularly for long lead-time”

McKeon et al (2004) note: “In eastern Australia, good seasons occurred in the early 1890s, late 1910s, early 1920s, mid 1950s, early 1970s and late 1990s. Because of the work of Power et al. (1999), we now suspect that quasi-decadal changes in the Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation or IPO) may result in the amplification of the effects of La Niña conditions on rainfall in eastern Australia (IPO negative phase). The retention of high stock numbers through subsequent drought periods resulted in the regional degradation episodes. Thus the impact of current favourable seasons in eastern Australia on stock numbers should be closely monitored as an early indicator of increasing risk of degradation, especially when the mode of Pacific Ocean behaviour returns to conditions that appear to make ‘big wets’ unlikely (i.e. positive IPO condition). Historical evidence indicates that where conservative stocking policies have been adopted, or when rapid reduction in stock numbers occurred in response to the onset of drought, degradation appears to have been minimal.”

We should also not forget the irony that seminal research on the physical basis of the IPO has been done by the Bureau of Meteorology (Power) and the Hadley Centre (Folland), alleged centres of the great “AGW conspiracy”.

And in terms of Bob Carter’s proposed Plan B there is one experimental long lead forecast system, SPOTA, that uses ENSO and the IPO to make a long lead forecast for Queensland. Interestingly this system uses gradients of seas surface temperature across regions not sea surface temperature boxes in an attempt to “climate change proof” the forecast i.e. the Norfolk Hawaii Index (NHI); and 2) the South West Pacific Index (SWPI)

So is there any evidence for any AGW effect (or interaction) on Australia’s rainfall climate in a sea of natural variability and how would you even find it? 

Part 2 will discuss any evidence for AGW influence.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/about-spota1/about.html

http://www.mssanz.org.au/MODSIM03/Volume_01/A02/04_Chiew.pdf

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/cli2000/McKeon.html

http://www.coastalconference.com/2007/papers2007/Peter%20Helman.doc

http://www.cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/sbp/abstracts/CD_IPO.htm

ftp://www.iges.org/pub/kinter/c20c/IPO.doc

”On some measures, it’s the strongest La Nina in recorded history … [but] we also have record-high ocean temperatures in northern Australia, which means more moisture evaporating into the air,” he said. ”And that means lots of heavy rain.”

Regular commentator at this blog Luke is of a similar opinion and sent me two charts as supporting information.  Click on the images for a larger, better view.

Luke writes about the charts:

“The first shows the 3pm vapour pressure (VP) averaged over eastern Australian the 3pm vapour – a measure of humidity.   As one can see there is some correlation with eastern Australian rainfall.

“Also shown is Australian tropical sea surface temperatures (SST) averaged for the same period with vapour pressure at 3pm.

“Both SSTs and VP are the highest for the 2010 period – highest since 1970.

“These data are consistent with an enhanced AGW hydrological cycle i.e. much greater atmospheric water content and source of convection.

“I am not saying that AGW caused this La Nina but the data are consistent with AGW adding to the propensity for rainfall as suggested by CSIRO studies and AGW theory.

“Interestingly these January 2011 Brisbane and Fitzroy floods were not caused by tropical cyclones.

“The charts should be of interest to serious sceptics.”

*************
Relevant CSIRO Report:
Abbs, D.J., McInnes, K.L. and Rafter, T. 2007, The impact of climate change on extreme rainfall and coastal sea levels over South East Queensland, Part 2: A high-resolution modelling study of the effect of climate change on the intensity of extreme rainfall events, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research – A report prepared for the Gold Coast City Council
http://www.hpsc.csiro.au/users/abb029/Seth_Westra/GCCC_Phase2_final.pdf

Comment from David Karoly http://www.smh.com.au/environment/fates-conspire-to-concoct-a-recipe-for-disaster-20110111-19mp7.html

Environmentalists see REDD as a useful vehicle for encouraging conservation of rainforests in the Congo, the Amazon and Asia.

This new resource has been termed “Green carbon” to be distinguished from grey carbon in fossil fuels, blue carbon in the oceans and atmosphere, and brown carbon in industrialized forests. There is of course really no real colour difference and the colour is merely a metaphor. [1]

The Green Carbon agenda received more scientific support last week with a major paper in Nature. Entitled ‘Old-growth forests as global carbon sinks’.[2]  The paper reports that in forests between 15 and 800 years of age, net ecosystem productivity (the net carbon balance of the forest including soils) is usually positive and this demonstrates that old-growth forests can continue to accumulate carbon, contrary to the long-standing view that they are carbon neutral.

The Kyoto Protocol (Marrakesh Accord) definition of a forest makes no distinction between a natural forest and a plantation.

Under the Kyoto Protocol definition, a “forest” is:  A minimum area of land of 0.05 hectares with tree crown cover (or equivalent stocking level) of more than 10 per cent with trees with the potential to reach a minimum height of 2 metres at maturity in situ.  It includes (i) young stands of natural regeneration; (ii) all plantations which have yet to reach a crown density of 10-30 per cent or tree height of 2-5 metres; (iii) areas normally forming part of the forest area which are temporarily unstocked as a result of human intervention such as harvesting or natural causes but which are expected to revert to forest.

International negotiations on REDD are still continuing and were high on the agenda at the Accra climate change meeting .  However, is REDD all green? What will happen at Copenhagen in 2009?  A number of international environmental groups raised alarm bells at the Accra meeting, claiming that allowing developed countries to purchase REDD credits would absolve them of responsibility for reducing industrial emissions at home.  Some groups proposed setting firm targets for industrial emissions reductions, which could not be substituted by REDD credits.  Others feared that a REDD mechanism would exclude and threaten indigenous communities and serve as an excuse for land grabbing, or endanger sovereignty in rainforest nations.

And, for Australian pastoralists, a key question is whether savanna woodland thickening be considered in the discussions, and if so – is it REDD or rangeland degradation? 

Luke Walker

Brisbane, Australia

*******************

[1] Alan Ashbarry has critiqued the concept of Green Carbon in a piece published at this blog on August 11, 2008, entitled: A Critical Review of ‘Green Carbon: The Role of Natural Forests in Carbon Storage’  

[2] Old-growth Forests as Global Carbon Sinks,  by  Sebastiaan Luyssaert, E. -Detlef Schulze, Annett Börner, Alexander Knohl, Dominik Hessenmöller, Beverly E. Law, Philippe Ciais & John Grace, Nature 455, 213-215 (11 September 2008)

Macquarie Island Under Threat

Erosion and heavy spring rains have caused a large landslip on Macquarie Island, in the Southern Ocean about 1500 kilometres south-east of Tasmania, killing penguins in an important colony.

Rabbits blamed for penguin deaths in landslide

The finer details of introducing dogs to rid a sub Antarctic island of rodents are still be worked through.

Macquarie Island dog plan still in the works

Turnbull to the rescue:

MEDIA RELEASE
The Hon Malcolm Turnbull MP
Minister for the Environment and Water Resources

T76 /07

4 June 2007

AGREEMENT TO ERADICATE RABBITS ON MACQUARIE ISLAND
The Australian and Tasmanian Governments have today reached an agreement to jointly fund the eradication of rodent pests on Macquarie Island to protect its World Heritage values.

The seabird populations and vegetation of the Island are under serious threat from plagues of rabbits, rats and mice.
Following from discussions between our Governments, I am please to announce that we have agreed in principle to provide funding of $24.6 million in equal shares to implement the Plan for the Eradication of Rabbits and Rodents on Subantarctic Macquarie Island.

The Prime Minister has today written to the Premier Lennon confirming the agreement under which the Australian and Tasmanian Governments will provide $12.3 million each to implement the eradication plan.

As Macquarie Island is part of Tasmania, the plan will be implemented by the Tasmanian Government, which will also meet any costs in excess of $24.6 million agreed funding.

The Australian Government funding is conditional on the eradication being managed by a joint Government steering committee supported by a scientific advisory committee.

As it takes two years for the for specialised training of dogs to hunt rabbits without impacting on the wildlife, our Governments have agreed that Tasmania will let contracts for this training and commence all other long-lead work immediately.

The Australian Government provided funding for the development of the eradication plan and in addition will continue to provide $1.6 million per year to support Tasmanian rangers who manage the nature reserve.
Macquarie Island was inscribed on the World Heritage List in 1997 on the basis of its outstanding natural universal values:

• as an outstanding example representing major stages of the earth’s evolutionary history, including the record of life, significant on-going geological processes in the development of landforms, or significant geomorphic or physiographic features; and

• containing superlative natural phenomena or areas of exceptional natural beauty and aesthetic importance.
Macquarie Island is situated about 1500 km south-south-east of Tasmania, about half way between Tasmania and Antarctica at around 55 degrees south. The main island is approximately 34 km long and 5.5 km wide at its broadest point.

Media contact: (02) 6277 7640 – Minister’s office.

Climate change may not be noticeable to all humans yet, but the behaviour of birds suggests the seasons have already changed.

A researcher at the weather bureau has found that some spring migrating birds are arriving many days earlier than they used to.

Short-term targets key to tackling climate change: report

A new report says a 30 per cent reduction in greenhouse emissions by 2020 is an achievable target for Australia.

Turnbull hints at ratifying new climate change agreement

Federal Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull has signalled Australia may ratify the next international climate change deal that comes into effect when the Kyoto Protocol expires.

World energy revolution needed for climate: U.S.

UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) – U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said on Monday the world needs a revolution on energy that transcends oil, gas and coal to prevent problems from climate change.

“Ultimately, we must develop and bring to market new energy technologies that transcend the current system of fossil fuels, carbon emissions and economic activity. Put simply, the world needs a technological revolution,” Rice told delegates at a special U.N. conference on climate change.

Their web site states: “FEX Climate Pty Ltd is the carbon and environmental arm of Financial and Energy Exchange Ltd a new platform for trading sustainability and cleantech stocks, financial, energy, carbon and environmental commodities and derivatives. The Financial and Energy Exchange (FEX) is supported by significant international investment and global partners including sharing its headquarters at 5 Bridge Street in Sydney with business news broadcaster CNBC. Internationally renowned derivatives trader, Brian Price, is the founder and CEO of FEX. FEX Climate has been built from the ground up a dedicated group, lead by CEO Fiona Waterhouse, who believes the market has an important role to play in directing investment towards businesses which use and produce sustainable technologies, products and services.”

But the real action was happening quietly up in the grazing paddocks of central Queensland. Bypassing the political debate over recent vegetation legislation and scientific researchers dreaming of a rural carbon market, Terry McCosker has established the CarbonLink company , a sister company, to the well known grazing consultancy, Resource Consulting Services (RCS) . RCS being a big advocate of the somewhat controversial cell grazing technology.

Carbonlink (CL) has developed enough credentials to be part of FEX. CL can estimate soil carbon reserves and their improvement through better grazing management. The company acts as an aggregator combining carbon on offer from various graziers, into packages large enough to be of interest to European or US emitters for a sale through the FEX. In a lead from private enterprise FEX seems to also have bypassed the government debate on possible trading systems.

Despite the Greenhouse Office and Minister McGauran being bearish over the prospects for sequestering carbon in Australian soils, McCosker is upbeat saying that grazing systems have plenty of capability compared to cropping lands, and that there are secondary improvements in pasture production, soil structure, and improved pasture quality resulting in less methane emission from grazing cattle.

CL hopes to have a 100,000 tonnes of CO2 for sale on FEX by Christmas.

CL press release says ” CL is in the process of verifying its first packages of soil carbon from several properties in eastern Australia.”

This carbon is expected to be available for trading in the coming months.

“When people think carbon they usually think trees,” according to CL chief executive, and soil and agribusiness consultant Rod Rush.”

“But in reality 75pc of carbon in and on the earth’s land mass is in the soil. We have a tremendous opportunity to utilise soil’s ability to absorb additional carbon through the right land management practices.”

“There is good evidence to suggest that the practice of cell grazing will facilitate soil carbon sequestration.”

“It is an added bonus of this managed pasture process under which livestock come on and off the pasture in a controlled fashion, with the pasture grazed for short periods, spelled while root reserves rebuild, regrow and are then grazed again.”

“Producers who have made good land use decisions in the past and those who choose to adopt these practices in the future will capitalise on that because soil carbon is poised to become a tradeable resource.”

“The good managers are running their farms in a manner that maximises root deposition in their soils and hence fixes much more soil carbon than is held in soils grazed traditionally.”

“Soil carbon can be measured by soil sampling and analysis and then traded as carbon credits,” he said.
“The bigger the active root matter of pasture, the more carbon is fixed.”

“The great thing is that cell grazing, unlike tree planting as a carbon-fixing option, does not lock up land and make it non-productive.”

“We are still verifying our processes, but CL plans to aggregate carbon, sequestered by groups of producers who commit to grazing management practices, that over the subsequent 10 years will sequester and maintain the resource.”

“For example, a 1pc increase in organic matter over a 10-year period may capture about 50 tonnes of CO2 that is worth about $1,000/ha gross before costs, at current retail prices.”

“There will be a proving period for each producer about how much CO2/hectare is being sequestered, with soils analysed in the first year of a commitment and then measured again in, for example, the 5th and 10th years to calculate any gains. ”

You can listen to McCosker advocate the scheme.

CL is the second carbon accreditation scheme to be launched in Australia over the last year – with Christine Jones launching Western Australia’s Australian Soil Carbon Accreditation Scheme (ASCAS) in March 2007.

Of course innovative graziers like Alan Lauder have been advocating carbon grazing incorporating saltbush as a philosophy for land management for over a decade but it’s McCosker who’s trying to break into the big international trading markets.

Industry commentary on rural carbon trading is available here and if you’re really keen rock up to the big carbon farming expo at Mudgee in November 2007. (IPA and denialists apply hard hats before entering these web sites)

So Queensland Country Life ran today with “CARBON: Why there’s real money in dirt”

OK are “dirty” greenhouse deals in dirt the way to go. It’s a long term commitment. Many decades. Does it add up? Are there side effects? Will global warming increase microbial activity and work against the sequestration? Can you realistically account for something you can’t see? How do emitters know what they’ve really got? Do you believe the sampling and science. Has Steve McIntyre audited the system personally? (Or has Hansen adjusted it?)

But it’s innovative. It’s not whinging. Don’t have to put up with touchy forestry types. It has positive land management benefits. It gets a new income stream into remote areas and extensive grazing. It’s free enterprise. And it does unify the city and bush. Needs good science input. It’s Australian high tech low tech hybrid !! Many things I’m passionate about. Oh yea – and it might help with CO2 sequestration too. What’s McCosker up to next – surely this isn’t just the limit – Aaron Edmonds must be out there somewhere.

What do you think: is there money in dirt or is it a dirty deal?

The Nature of Northern Australia is the result of almost three years of intensive research by authors Dr John Woinarski, Professor Brendan Mackey, Professor Henry Nix and Dr Barry Traill

Not only does the north have two thirds of Australia’s freshwater resources, it also contains abundant minerals, energy, unique iconic landscapes, including Kakadu and the Kimberley and unique aboriginal heritage.

Some of Australia’s largest, most undisturbed rivers, an abundance of plant and animal species not found anywhere else in the country, and nationally important areas of rainforest, mangroves and tropical heath lands are also located in the north.

Recent pressures with water supply and drought in southern Australia have refocused national development attention again on the north with a joint government and industry taskforce reviewing options for the future.

“In other parts of the world, tropical savanna is in decline due to land clearing, unsustainable grazing regimes and over population, but this vast area of northern Australia is remarkably intact,” co-author Professor Brendan Mackey from The Australian National University said.

However, there are mounting concerns about the biodiversity assets of this region documented in surveys in the report. Ecological threats such as changing fire regimes, overgrazing, feral animals, exotic weeds and climate change remain unresolved issues.

Scientists have singled out cattle grazing, above climate change and mining, as the most threatening process to northern Australia.

In an ABC interview Professor Brendan Mackey said 70 per cent of northern Australia is held under pastoral lease and cattle stations should do more to protect the ecology of tropical savannas.

“So what pastoralists do or choose not to do will have enormous bearing on the environmental health of northern Australia and its wonderful globally significant natural assets,” he said.

“What we are asking for is for what we call best management practice.”

Despite the difficulties associated with pastoralism in the north the report documents exciting developments at Trafalgar, at Charters Towers.

Joe Landsberg is demonstrating the benefits of ecological grazing in a most difficult environment. He says “we reduced our stocking rate by 60%. Then by spelling at least 20% of the property every wet season, we were able to restore native pasture species to greater than 80% within a few years. These lessons have now led us to our current management regime, where spelling 20% of the property annually, strategic use of small areas of exotic pasture, conservative stocking rates and intensive herd management have increased our productivity (i.e. higher calving rates, earlier and heavier turn-off weights, better meat quality) and therefore profit. Monitoring sites on the property also confirmed the improvement in pasture quality, soil health and water quality. We also have an annual control program for exotic weeds. Current research in natural resource management also confirms these strategies lead to improved biodiversity and ecosystem health. “

Premonitions of intensive irrigated agriculture development in the north have brought back memories of insect plagues and high pesticide use in the sensitive tropical environment.

Professor Henry Nix, another of the authors behind the report with Professor Mackey, says critics of the cotton industry are not aware genetically modified cotton has overcome challenges faced over a decade ago.

He says genetically modified cotton has proved it is sustainable.

“Cotton is regarded as a monster, and it certainly was 10-15 years ago, because of the very large amounts of chemicals – 17, 18 sprays per crop,” he said.

“Now that’s down to as low as one spray. Eighty per cent of their cotton crop is now a GMO crop.”

CSIRO has developed an entirely new 21st century agronomic package for cotton production in the Ord irrigation area using off-season production, transgenic cotton and beneficial insects

Another remarkable innovation for use of the savannas is a practical reduction in greenhouse emissions from a modified fire regime that reduces high intensity late season burning.

The SMH reports that Conoco, which operates a liquefied natural gas plant in Darwin, had entered into an agreement to offset some of the greenhouse gas emissions produced at its plant. In return for carbon credits, Conoco pays the West Arnhem Land Fire Abatement partners more than $1 million a year. Some 100,000 tonnes a year of greenhouse gas emissions can be saved by this approach which is verified by satellite monitoring.

———————————————————
** The Nature of NorthernAustralia – Natural values, ecological processes and future prospects
By John Woinarski, Brendan Mackey, Henry Nix & Barry Traill
2007 ANU E Press Australian National University E Press
ISBN 9781921313301 (pbk.) ISBN 9781921313318 (online)
Read the e-book here: http://epress.anu.edu.au/nature_na/pdf/whole_book.pdf

A regular reader and commentator at this blog, Luke Walker, emailed me the following comment on the program:

Hi Jennifer,

ABC Four Corners last night aired CBC’s news magazine show The Fifth Estate which panned Dr. S. Fred Singer, Dr Tim Ball, Exxon, APCO and others in the ” Denial Machine” a 40-minute documentary that gave context to anti-AGW politics in the USA and Canada.

Of particular interest was the careful use of language by media analysts and opinion pollsters. For example, a once Republican media strategist Frank Luntz dispassionately laid out how to use framing and language to create uncertainty from certainty and create public opinion on issues such as climate change.

Chomsky would have had a field day. We don’t say “global warming”, we say “climate change”. Global warming is too scary for the poll groups.

We were shown how words like “energy intensity” get seamlessly inserted into the rhetoric while having a different meaning and different outcomes to reductions in greenhouse emissions but the same public perceptions.

For Aussie audiences there was plenty of US style journalism and ‘Denial Machine’ had plenty of not-so-nice evidence, told-you-so’s and tut-tut’s for the AGW converted.

Indeed the AGW cheer squad would have loved it.

But in the end the issue of global warming/climate change has become a right versus left issue. Good versus evil, or evil versus good. The end of the world versus the end of the economy. Conservatives versus liberals. Dirty denialists versus scary alarmists.

Bizarrely the show’s last word was from the once Republican media strategist Frank Luntz who has incredibly become a convert to AGW. He now believes that the science is conclusive and that we must do something about it.

“Conservatives need to make much greater effort to talk about what’s happening in the environment, and Liberals should acknowledge the serious economic consequences of Kyoto,” Luntz said. He continued, “If you really care about global warming, take it out of the political sphere, don’t beat each other over the head, be honest, don’t yell, and focus on solutions that make a difference. Not everything in life is about politics”.

Global warming is too important an issue to be run by public relations, language manipulators and partisan politics.

Take note say the converted – and so – a very long road to travel, including for the inhabitants of this blog.

Cheers, Luke.

“Readers of this blog are often witness to accusations of alarmism by those opposed to scenario projections using contemporary anthropogenic global warming theory.

Comfort is often taken in the world having survived substantial climate swings in geological time and that some species such as reef building corals have come through that turmoil.

So it is with some irony that the October 2006 issue of Scientific American has a major article by Professor Peter Ward at the University of Washington suggests that extinction events in geological history have been caused by killer greenhouse conditions. What’s this – geological alarmism? Is nothing sacred?

“More than half life on the earth has been wiped out, repeatedly, in mass extinctions over the past 500 million years. One such disaster, which includes disappearance of the dinosaurs, is widely attributed to an asteroid impact, but others remain inadequately explained.

New fossil and geochemical evidence points to a shocking environmental mechanism for the largest of the ancient mass extinctions and possibly several more: an oxygen depleted ocean spewing poisonous gas as a result of global warming”

Apparently five times over the last 500 million years most of the world’s life forms have ceased to exist. End of the Ordovician 443 My ago; close of the Devonian 374 My; the Great Dying at the end of the Permian 251 My where 90% of ocean dwellers and 70% of land dwellers were obliterated; the end of the Triassic 201 My; and the end of the Cretaceous at 65 My with a likely asteroid impact.

However, new analyses are showing that some sudden extinctions were not that sudden lasting several hundred thousands of years.

It theoretically works something like this:

1. Volcanic activity releases carbon dioxide and methane

2. Rapid global warming occurs

3. Warm ocean absorbs less oxygen

4. Anoxia destabilises the chemocline where oxygenated surface waters meet H2S permeated waters in the ocean, anaerobic bacteria flourish

5. Hydrogen sulphide gas (H2S) gas upwells through the ocean as the chemocline rises to the ocean surface

6. Green and purple sulphur bacteria in the surface ocean thrive while oxygen breathers suffocate

7. H2S gas kills land animals and plants.

8. H2S destroys the ozone shield

9. Ultra violet radiation from the sun kills remaining life.

“A minor extinction at the end of the Palaeocene 54My ago was already – presciently – attributed to an interval of oceanic anoxia somehow triggered by short-term global warming.” Evidence is also present at the end of Triassic, middle Cretaceous, and late Devonian.

So are these extreme greenhouse effect extinctions possibly a recurring phenomenon in the earth’s history. Atmospheric CO2 was 1000ppm when extinctions began in the Palaeocene. “

So if the modern earth got close to 1000ppm this might represent something for our children to deal with. But maybe that’s just geological alarmism for you.

I’m getting a Lotto syndicate going called “Killer Greenhouse”.

More reading:

Climate simulation of the latest Permian: Implications for mass extinction by Jeffrey T. Kiehl & Christine A. Shields Climate Change Research Section, National Center for Atmospheric Research, 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, Colorado 80305, USA

Abrupt and Gradual Extinction Among Late Permian Land Vertebrates in the Karoo Basin, South Africa
Science 4 February 2005:Vol. 307. no. 5710, pp. 709 – 714 by Peter D. Ward,1* Jennifer Botha,3 Roger Buick,2 Michiel O. De Kock,5 Douglas H. Erwin,6 Geoffrey H. Garrison,2 Joseph L. Kirschvink,4 Roger Smith3

Photic Zone Euxinia During the Permian-Triassic Superanoxic Event, Science 4 February 2005:
Vol. 307. no. 5710, pp. 706 – 709 by Kliti Grice, Changqun Cao, Gordon D. Love, Michael E. Böttcher, Richard J. Twitchett, Emmanuelle Grosjean, Roger E. Summons, Steven C. Turgeon, William Dunning,Yugan Jin

Massive Release of Hydrogen Sulphide to the Surface Ocean and Atmosphere during intervals of Oceanic Anoxia. Kump, L.R., Pavlov, A., Arthur, M.A. Geology: 33:5:397-400. May 2005.”

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Thanks Luke. And I’m going to add to your reading list: The Past is the Key to the Present: Greenhouse and Icehouse Over Time by Prof Ian Plimer, IPA Review, Vol 55, No. 1. March 2003, pgs. 9-12.