In Australia we have suffered long enough from bad forecasts.  It is time to do something to improve forecasting standards. 

A National Forecasters Guild could be established in Canberra to register forecasters of all persuasions. A registration fee of $500 per year per forecaster should assist with the maintenance of the Guild and allow for research and development of this most important craft. A database would be held on all forecasters and those with complaints registered against their names would face the National Forecasters Guild Tribunal and be made to answer these complaints.  This database should be open to the public and all dealings made transparent.

If the offending forecasters were deemed to be below standard, the licence to forecast would be suspended. Any forecaster who insisted on forecasting, while suspended should be fined $50,000 and the fine should be doubled for each additional breach. The Trade Practices Act at Section 52 deals with misleading and deceptive conduct and there is no reason why this should not apply to forecasters.

This initiative has come from the land that gave us Hanrahan and anybody in agriculture knows too well the impact of weather and prices on profit, especially around Berrigan New South Wales in Australia.

Australia would move forward with  much greater speed if was not impeded be substandard forecasts ,whether it be the weather, interest rates, oil, real estate values or whatever else people want foretold. Good forecasters have much to gain by removing poor performers who give their profession a bad name. Poor performers must undergo retraining until their skills improve, during a monitored probationary period, at their cost. Any forecaster lacking judgement and intuition should find alternate work for the benefit of the nation.

If you look back at the recent incorrect assumptions and predictions made by many forecasters and relate that to lost opportunity, the loss to Australia is enormous and indeed disastrous to some individuals. It is easy to say that only the less intelligent use forecasts and that forecasters don’t really matter to the real world. If this is true then why have forecasts at all.

Intuition and insight are gifts that few people possess. Encouraging good insight and inspiring perceptive individuals to do good work will benefit the whole nation.

Graeme Pyle
Berrigan, NSW, Australia