No, Luke. You are using slobby, mock-technical terminology combined with trashy sensationalism. A supercell is a supercell and has nothing to do with some storm event over Wivenhoe dam. You’re fudging, and you know it. (Mind you, supercells did occur around 2010. One in WA, as I recall.) You just like the effect of “super” and “record”. 2011 was a record La Nina in some ways, 1917, the mid-70s and 1950 in others. We all know if these old events were to occur now you would make frantic propaganda with them, just as you are trying to making something out of October fires which, terrible as they are, were inevitable after years of build-up in all the wrong places. (Visit Winmallee and shudder!). Dry, hot, windy Octobers have occurred frequently in NSW, they have always proven dangerous. (Our hottest here on the midcoast was in 1913, our driest October was in 1908.)
Also, get skeptical about ENSO, while using it for what it’s worth. Did you know your own Qld bureaucracy just a few years ago used to rate 1906 as the most intense El Nino, not 1982? Yet if you were in SE Qld in 1905-6 you wouldn’t have even felt it. ENSO is a ROUGH OBSERVATION SET, not a MECHANISM.
AGW can point to all the extremes it likes. History is full of extremes, just as the future is full of them. You work by magnifying the emotion and picking out the exceptional aspects of current extremes, and by dismissing the past and pretending climate can be known and predicted within some junk science bubble. I can tell you more and more detail of the Waterfall spring fires but it will be wasted because it does not fit your script. However, if the same event occurred tomorrow you would give it the deluxe treatment. It’s what you do. And we all know it’s what you do. If Cyclone Mahina or Black Tuesday were fresh events you’d be all over them. And we know it. The most deadly climatic event of last century was flooding in China in the 1930s. If it happened now, you’d be wagging the finger. Instead, it’s to be legislated out of existence as “spotty anecdote”.
OK how weally biggish and uncommon intense rainfall event thingy with heaps and heaps of water in a short time type formation then. Now such weally biggish and uncommon intense rainfall event thingy with heaps and heaps of water in a short time type formation thingy would need to be driven by unusual drivers (and indeed they were). And to wit observers said – wow that’s a weally biggish and uncommon intense rainfall event thingy with heaps and heaps of water in a short time type formation thingy isn’t it.
So for you again – when its happening – its not happening. I wonder why they call that denial.
So for Robby it will never be happening as it can’t happen. So it’s not happening. “Don’t bother us with your measurements lad – it’s just not happening.”
Storm chasers chasing weally biggish and uncommon intense rainfall event thingy with heaps and heaps of water in a short time type formation thingies near Wivenhoe – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fVT01XaDKvE NOTE video incorrectly labelled.
So you’ve worked out that massive and intense storms have unusual drivers? That would then help you to understand a thing or two about Brissie in 2010-11…and in 1893. Having read the hydrology report for the construction of Wivenhoe, I’m pleased when people understand these things. Especially when you consider that the 1841 flood was slightly higher again, and the engineers were very aware of that, since it was based on an exact measurement taken at the PO. Of course, every deluge is different and has its own personality, but what a relief to have engineers and hydrologists ignoring the babblers of the day. I like to ignore the babblers of my day.
But you know some guy called “Robby” who denies that recent Qld storms and floods of 2010-11 even happened? Or something like that? Or did you invent this “Robby” for dramatic effect?
Is this a script thing, in which you needed some bad-guy creationist type? So you came up with “Robby”?
Well Robby “Having read the hydrology report for the construction of Wivenhoe, I’m pleased when people understand these things.”
Yes well all of that knowledge is now gone and replaced by direct advice from Tim Flannery and Al Gore. Greenpeace and WWF dictate dam engineering these days. And they only use IPCC numbers.
What do you reckon Robby? Hydrology is now extinct. You guys know.
Yes don’t want to listen to babblers with all their bloody numbers do we. Real hydrologists like to get out there with their thumb like painters of great masterpieces do. You don’t worry about numbers Robby. That’s lefty bullshit. Fictitious supercells on ideologically incorrect doppler radar is for communists. Real guys do their maths on slide rules or mate – no stuff that too – just bloody go for it mate – go by gut feel if you’re a legend. And if you can do it when pissed so much the better.
You just have your Australian qualitative anecdotes history book, signed by Menzies circa 1950s at your side as you pour that concrete or open those flood gates. Rule of thumb Robby – you have to have a “feel” for it. And always time in the big event to stop for a quick drink and a blokey yarn about the wife and kids too.
And that’s why we should keep the flag the same. Now piss off and get a hair cut Robby.