Well SD, I’ve had a rather long ‘discussion’ at Deltoid and also read a lot of stuff. To be honest, I thought the concept was rather clear. But after lots of arguments and name calling, I think I will have to call it quits. As I said once before, I must be far dimmer than I thought because your idea of a BTP seems quite obvious and in keeping with the notion of the geoid and MSL. I did do a fair bit of reading of introductory texts on geodesy and that was a bit above my paygrade – there’s some wrinkles to the notion of the ellipsoid and the geoid that I can’t quite fathom (cool pun huh?).
But it seems clear from most of what I read that the concept of the geoid derives from the fact that if the oceans were free of local perturbations, then the sea would settle to the perfect geoid – that is, a surface perfectly level to gravity at each point. So your notion of the sea ‘seeking equilibrium’ certainly makes sense even if the terminology is not quite right.
As it is, local perturbations amount to little more than 1-2 metres over the geoid, which is pretty much what you said. That sounds like a billiard table to me. What is very interesting is that originally, it was imagined that the MSL would form a very regular figure (because MSL was thought to be perfectly ‘level’) and there was some surprise when we got satellite measurements that showed the geoid actually varies by some 200 metres over its surface. Even so, MSL still follows the geoid quite closely.
At one stage in the comments, a few of the Deltoids tried to argue that MSL varies from the geoid by up to 200 metres which shows an erroneous grasp of the concept. Neil White suggests that were we able to measure the geoid in say 1870, then the derived geoid would not be the same as today’s, but I think he misunderstood what I meant. In fact, pretty much all of the time they seemed to deliberately misunderstand me. A very strange experience.
That said, tide gauges DO show SLR at various worldwide locations. Interestingly, SE Qld gauges for the past 20-30 years exhibit little overall variation, perhaps even a decline, EXCEPT for the past few years. So, my best guess is that SLR over 150 years amounts to about 200-300 mm globally, and that variation is well within the bounds of the known variation of MSL to the geoid. So I suspect that 150 years just isn’t long enough for SLR at its current relatively leisurely rate to rise above the noise of the larger signal.
I will go out on a limb and predict the king tide you observe WILL actually equal or exceed previous benchmarks.
SD; have you ever attended a bushfire scene in my regions, ACT, Vic or Tasmania where people with tiny holdings struggle with risk of fire from neighbours and vice verca? Green bashing from your distance or NZ is just too easy, isn’t it?
Your kiwi blog features a great pic of somebody’s property burning by the railway, no date, no place or connection with the recent infernos. It’s certainly not connected to greens or townships featured say on ABC (no rail to Dunalley and few trains anywhere). My impression; Midlands Hwy Launceston area and dry sheep country with nothing green between the plataues
Good grief, now they seem to have completely agreed that SD’s BTP idea is actually right. Yet I am pretty sure that about 1000 comments ago they were viciously asserting he was nuts for saying it. The only difference is that I’ve agreed that it probably doesn’t say anything about SLR… That’s some kind of alternate reality, right there.
Graeme, I admire your persistence and politeness. There are so many at Deltoid that haven’t got a clue yet they are well educated [on some things] but love to spread confusion from their ignorance on this subject.
I will report my obs of this morning’s KT when I get back.
Look forward to hearing what you find. I’d love to see tide gauge data for SE Qld for the past 250 years, which of course we can’t have. My suspicion about today’s tide is fuelled by the fact we’ve had several years of La Nina and warm waters off Qld and so one could expect to see higher water than usual./ Tide gauges seem to show that, especially the one for my old stomping grounds, Urangan.
As for the Deltoids, well… they seem smart enough at times but deliberately misdirecting about what seems perfectly obvious. I am pretty sure that where we started is quite at odds with where we ended but they seemed convinced that they’d proved their case. I shall reread the whole thread when I get a few moments.
I still think your idea of the sea tending to equilibrium is right and that SLR should show up everywhere, but I suspect that the noise of the local perturbations damps it on shorter time scales.
Basically, tide gauge data must be right, or there must be some systemic error in the way we measure. Given lots of smart people have been looking at this stuff for a while now, I think we have to agree that the gauges are generally correct.
But I really can’t see this acceleration we should have had since about 1940…
I went to have a another look Graeme…. (sorry Cohenite),
It seems that in their insane rush to argue with you and SD… they didn’t double check their own previous comments….and basically shot their own arguments down.
I’m still not sure why you bothered though?.
There is no good standard of behaviour maintained there. I suppose that would be the moderators’ faults? Imagine Jen putting up with that sort of language and spite? Or the moderators at Jonova’s site?
That Wow dude and a couple of others look to be suffering from some type of manic or bipolar disorder. The swearing and name calling is unbelievably rude.
A couple of the less nasty ones did start to very grudgingly concede you might possibly have had a valid point…..sort of.
For what it’s worth Graeme…..your comments exhibited far more consistency and common sense than all the intellectual bed wetting …(I love that bed wetting description SD!)….that they persist with.
I didn’t notice your link above there….are you going to link it for them?
Or maybe not? John Sayers and JW and a couple of others said that they would just go straight into some character assassination like they did with Humlum earlier.
There is a part of me that agrees with what Mark A said earlier.
I think I want my half hour back.
I’m glad you thought that they shot themselves down, I was starting to think that I was imagining that. As I say, it’s like some sort of alternate reality. After some reading, the basic concept became pretty clear to me, even though the detail is way over my head. But there really seemed a lack of understanding of the concept as far as I could see. I even posted quotes from geodesic texts on university websites and they disagreed with them.
As for moderation, I suspect if I’d gotten as personal and nasty as they do, I’d have been banned.
“They must have dredged the shipping channel more than we thought and let all the water out”
SD all this navel gazing an highfaluting contemplations can be replaced by simple logic, I admit neither common sense or logic is in abundance these days when it comes to CC.
Given the shape of the earth and the bottom of the oceans being very uneven, the slightly differing gravitational force creates bumps and troughs in the sea.
The fact is that more water is not going to accentuate the overall sea level difference between different areas of the sea.
It will spread out eventually but the percentage difference will still be the same.
So one cannot say it is rising too much in one place but not in others, there must come a time when the level reestablishes itself.
How long is this time?
SD, when I was looking into beach abuse back in the 80s (after witnessing the disgraceful annual vehicular tear-up of beaches around Seal Rocks), I read a theory that the north east of Oz was gaining sand naturally, while the south was losing it. I have no idea if that was so, or if it could have a bearing on SL where you’ve been monitoring, but it’s worth mentioning.
Here’s why one cannot win with our Green Betters:
The current cold gripping nearly all the northern hemisphere is being confidently explained as an effect of melting ice caps and CAGW. The reason to despair is that word “confidently”. These people have got religion. They don’t even blink. Every contradiction is immediately explained away with the blissful certainty of true faith.
No wonder hipsters like zombie movies. They are themselves Gaia’s good little zombies.
Well done Ken – this week has been very interesting regards the BoM and their predictions and statements. I’ve also been following up their statements.
David Jones, Head of BoM stated:
“Yulara, 85km west of Curtin Springs and in the shadow of Uluru, has already experienced its longest-ever recorded run of plus-40 days, (12 days)with every day this year above 40C and eight days above 44C.”
In January 2011 Yulara had only 10 days out of 31 that were below 40 degrees and were consecutive above 40 degrees from the 14th through to the 30th! (17 days)
Dr Jones said “recurring temperatures in the high 40s recorded in towns such as Oodnadatta and Marree in South Australia’s north this year were “one in 20-year values”.
At Marree in January 2006 there were only 3 days below 40C. At Oodnadatta in January 2011 there were only 7 days below 40C with the 14th through to 31st consecutive apart from the 18th which was 39.8C.
Posted this before and made a mistake in my email addy so it went into moderation, if Jennifer is away it it’s unlikely to appear so here it goes again, slightly modified to get around the “duplicate post” error.
“Two thoughts for starters, Gaia was the form that gave us endless opportunity and SD’s tide mark was made in a vacuum.
JW; great watching your gradual appreciation of raw nature. No system was ever perfect at any instant and time is the unifying factor”
Gavin, may I ask why you make assumptions about people you don’t know anything about, never met and unlikely to do so?
I’m coming from a farming family and worked on our farm till I was 18 and occasionally helping out after, till it was sold.
Anyone living or working on the land and want to be successful at it, needs to be in tune with nature. Know its gamut of offerings, its bounty and caprice expect the drought and floods.
Working against nature makes you undone sooner or later.
You like anecdotes Gavin, here is one for you, in the seventies we had some bumper seasons, plenty of rain and warm weather.
I kid you not, the grass was so tall you could only see the top half of cattle grazing. Some had cut hay twice.
Anyway we had a neighbour who bought a 1000 acres next us. He doubled his stock and boasted about it.
A year later he spent his days for weeks on end driving his cows up and down the long paddock trying to save them from starving.
He virtually could not give them away, there was a long waiting list at the abattoirs. Not working with and appreciating nature does that to you.
One does not have work the land though, you can live on the top floor of a high rise in the centre of a city and still be more appreciative and knowledgeable of nature and its beauty than some greeny zealots, who never even have a chance to piss against a tree trunk, living their entire existence talking about saving nature but never visiting.
An other thing Gavin, stop referring to Gaia as some living caring being. You almost worshipping it.
Don’t know if you are a religious man but I tell you if you feel the need in your life for faith you would do better joining one of the old time religions.
Some even have pomp and ceremony, most have nice social gatherings, you’d enjoy that Gavin, and all you have to do is what you are doing now, have faith and believe!
Or if you don’t want real religion you can join the Uniting church, God doesn’t play a major role in their lives, they hardly acknowledge and seldom mention Christ and they firmly believe in AGW too. Would suit you right down to the ground.
But what ever you do Gavin, stop assuming that you are the only one knowing about and loving nature.
An other thing while I’m at it, I absolutely hate and am sick of hearing the word “unprecedented” describing any climatic event.
We have documented records for events worse than the current one and it’s still described as such.
Lets face it we have what, 500 years of reliable records if that?
And yet we have the nerve call any storm bush fire or other natural disaster as unprecedented.
He proposed that water is created within the mantle and our underground aquifers are fed from below, not from water seeping down from above ground. The hot water coming up through submarine vents are also coming from the mantle thus adding to the amount of sea water.
there are many others proposing the same thing and extending the theory further to oil and more.
Don’t have the links at my fingertips at the moment but if you are interested it is well worth the time investigating.
There was an infrequent poster here Louis Hissink I think who knew more about it.
Anyway it’s a fascinating idea and quite plausible, I always regarded the water on earth being derived from crashing ice asteroids as some suggested, as SF.
Thanks for that John. His points on the methane coming from the early Artesian basin and his description of the under-ocean earth’s crust make you think. The thinness and flexibility of that crust will always interfere with SLR predictions. As he says, knowing that models can’t quantify all these unknowns makes their predictions foolish. The physics of abiotic water is a bit beyond me but I’m happy to accept the possibility. As JW says Louis was into the theory of the electric dynamic universe.